[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v68y2002i3p530-548.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models

Author

Listed:
  • Seungmook Choi
  • Don Hardigree
  • Paul D. Thistle
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to compare alternative models of insurance pricing as theories of the property‐liability underwriting cycle. The existing literature has focused on comparing two models, the financial pricing and capacity constraint models. However, these are not the only relevant models. We show that six alternative models imply the same general form of the pricing equation. We apply the model to data on stock property‐liability insurers for the period 1935‐1997. We find that the actuarial model and the capacity constraint hypothesis are the only theoretical models that are consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Seungmook Choi & Don Hardigree & Paul D. Thistle, 2002. "The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 530-548, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:68:y:2002:i:3:p:530-548
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00436.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00436.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00436.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Asymmetric Information and the New Theory of the Firm: Financial Constraints and Risk Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 160-165, May.
    3. Cummins, J. David & Danzon, Patricia M., 1997. "Price, Financial Quality, and Capital Flows in Insurance Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-38, January.
    4. Grace, M. F. & J. L. Hotchkiss, 1993. "External Impacts on the Property-Liability Insurance Cycle," Working Papers 020, Risk and Insurance Archive, revised Feb 1995.
    5. Winter, Ralph A, 1991. "Solvency Regulation and the Property-Liability "Insurance Cycle."," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 458-471, July.
    6. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    7. Leland, Hayne E, 1972. "Theory of the Firm Facing Uncertain Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 278-291, June.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Doherty, Neil A. & Kang, Han Bin, 1988. "Interest rates and insurance price cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 199-214, June.
    10. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    11. Cagle, Julie A B & Harrington, Scott E, 1995. "Insurance Supply with Capacity Constraints and Endogenous Insolvency Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 219-232, December.
    12. Doherty, Neil A & Garven, James R, 1995. "Insurance Cycles: Interest Rates and the Capacity Constraint Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 383-404, July.
    13. Winter Ralph A., 1994. "The Dynamics of Competitive Insurance Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-415, September.
    14. Anne Gron, 1994. "Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 110-127, Spring.
    15. Ralph A. Winter, 1991. "The Liability Insurance Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 115-136, Summer.
    16. Higgins, Matthew L & Thistle, Paul D, 2000. "Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Underwriting Profits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 442-457, July.
    17. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. "ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-366, December.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    19. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    20. Harrington, Scott E & Danzon, Patricia M, 1994. "Price Cutting in Liability Insurance Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 511-538, October.
    21. Marshall, John M, 1974. "Insurance Theory: Reserves versus Mutuality," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 476-492, December.
    22. Gron, Anne, 1994. "Evidence of Capacity Constraints in Insurance Markets," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(2), pages 349-377, October.
    23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shi‐jie Jiang & Jeffrey Tzu‐Hao Tsai & Feiyun Xiang, 2023. "Dynamics of underwriting profits in the US market: Payout patterns and regulation effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3100-3118, July.
    2. Sedar Olmez & Akhil Ahmed & Keith Kam & Zhe Feng & Alan Tua, 2023. "Exploring the Dynamics of the Specialty Insurance Market Using a Novel Discrete Event Simulation Framework: a Lloyd's of London Case Study," Papers 2307.05581, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Shi-jie & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2012. "Dynamics of underwriting profits: Evidence from the U.S. insurance market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
    2. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French Property," Working Papers 2014-47, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Denis Kessler, 2005. "La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(3), pages 159-170.
    6. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, September.
    7. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    8. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Font, Begoña, 1998. "Modelización de series temporales financieras. Una recopilación," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3664, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. Faith R. Neale & Kevin L. Eastman & Pamela Peterson Drake, 2009. "Dynamics of the Market for Medical Malpractice Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 221-247, March.
    11. David L. Dicks & James R. Garven, 2022. "Asymmetric information and insurance cycles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 449-474, June.
    12. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    13. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, September.
    14. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    15. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    16. Strauss, Jason, 2007. "Price Regulation, Market Exit, and Financial Leverage of Canadian Property-Liability Insurers," MPRA Paper 11212, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Oct 2008.
    17. Daly, Kevin, 2008. "Financial volatility: Issues and measuring techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2377-2393.
    18. Harrington, Scott E. & Danzon, Patricia M. & Epstein, Andrew J., 2008. ""Crises" in medical malpractice insurance: Evidence of excessive price-cutting in the preceding soft market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 157-169, January.
    19. Piotr Manikowski & П. Маниковский, 2016. "АНДЕРРАЙТИНГОВЫЕ ЦИКЛЫ И КРИЗИСЫ // Underwriting Cycles and Crises," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 4, pages 76-81.
    20. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    21. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:68:y:2002:i:3:p:530-548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.