[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/mgtdec/v44y2023i3p1547-1564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are you resilient? Machine learning prediction of corporate rebound out of the Covid‐19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Bughin
Abstract
We use the Covid‐19 crisis to assess how four capability domains that traditionally support corporate performance (agility, innovation, ecosystem play and digitization) can also predict corporate resilience, among global firms. Our results are based on a blend of advanced machine learning techniques that capture the complementarities among capabilities. We confirm that dynamic capabilities boost recovery, but especially when linked with aggressive leadership posture, e.g. rebound is more likely when firms are the main player/orchestrator of their business ecosystems as well as when they invest in disruptive, as opposed to incremental innovations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Bughin, 2023. "Are you resilient? Machine learning prediction of corporate rebound out of the Covid‐19 pandemic," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1547-1564, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:44:y:2023:i:3:p:1547-1564
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.3764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3764
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/mde.3764?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruijun Chen & Yaping Xie & Yingqi Liu, 2021. "Defining, Conceptualizing, and Measuring Organizational Resilience: A Multiple Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    3. Bechir Mokline & Mohamed Anis Ben Abdallah, 2022. "The Mechanisms of Collective Resilience in a Crisis Context: The Case of The ‘COVID-19’ Crisis," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 23(1), pages 151-163, March.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    5. Ron Boschma, 2015. "Towards an Evolutionary Perspective on Regional Resilience," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 733-751, May.
    6. Parker, Hamieda & Ameen, Khadija, 2018. "The role of resilience capabilities in shaping how firms respond to disruptions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 535-541.
    7. Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel & Slim, Skander, 2021. "Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and, monetary policy shocks matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 676-699.
    8. Jacques Bughin & Nicolas van Zeebroeck, 2017. "New evidence for the power of digital platforms," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/257053, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Matthias Breier & Andreas Kallmuenzer & Thomas Clauss & Johanna Gast & Sascha Kraus & Victor Tiberius, 2021. "The role of business model innovation in the hospitality industry during the COVID-19 crisis," Post-Print hal-03514806, HAL.
    10. Martin, Philippe & Cros, Mathieu & Epaulard, Anne, 2021. "Will Schumpeter Catch Covid-19?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Martin Hoegl & Silja Hartmann, 2021. "Bouncing back, if not beyond: Challenges for research on resilience," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 456-464, September.
    12. Sabatino, Michele, 2016. "Economic crisis and resilience: Resilient capacity and competitiveness of the enterprises," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1924-1927.
    13. Schmalensee, Richard, 1985. "Do Markets Differ Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 341-351, June.
    14. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1987. "Oligopoly Supergames: Some Empirical Evidence on Prices and Margins," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 379-398, June.
    15. Rajshree Agarwal & Constance E. Helfat, 2009. "Strategic Renewal of Organizations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 281-293, April.
    16. Sang Hoon Jung & Yong Jin Jeong, 2022. "A quantitative perspective of Porter's industry forces framework for investment analysis," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 48-64, January.
    17. Wang, Yonggui & Hong, Aoran & Li, Xia & Gao, Jia, 2020. "Marketing innovations during a global crisis: A study of China firms’ response to COVID-19," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 214-220.
    18. David J. Teece & Gary Pisano & Amy Shuen, 1997. "Dynamic capabilities and strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(7), pages 509-533, August.
    19. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/283547 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kieran Kelliher, 2013. "A statistical approach to identifying current leading indicators of the US recovery," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1/2), pages 86-107.
    21. Jorge Heredia & Cathy Rubiños & William Vega & Walter Heredia & Alejandro Flores, 2022. "New Strategies to Explain Organizational Resilience on the Firms: A Cross-Countries Configurations Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    22. Bachas,Pierre Jean & Brockmeyer,Anne & Semelet,Camille Marine, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms: Micro Tax Data Simulations across Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9437, The World Bank.
    23. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2015. "On the notion of regional economic resilience: conceptualization and explanation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-42.
    24. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    25. Rob Jago Floetgen & Jana Strauss & Jörg Weking & Andreas Hein & Florian Urmetzer & Markus Böhm & Helmut Krcmar, 2021. "Introducing platform ecosystem resilience: leveraging mobility platforms and their ecosystems for the new normal during COVID-19," European Journal of Information Systems, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 304-321, May.
    26. Ilaria Gandin & Claudio Cozza, 2019. "Can we predict firms’ innovativeness? The identification of innovation performers in an Italian region through a supervised learning approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacques Bughin & Sybille Berjoan & Francis Hinterman & Yuhui Xiong, 2021. "Is this Time Different? Corporate Resilience in the Age of Covid-19," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Sooksan Kantabutra & Nuttasorn Ketprapakorn, 2021. "Toward an Organizational Theory of Resilience: An Interim Struggle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-28, November.
    3. Anna Wziątek-Kubiak & Marek Pęczkowski, 2021. "Strengthening the Innovation Resilience of Polish Manufacturing Firms in Unstable Environments," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 716-739, June.
    4. Gómez, Jaime & Krammer, Sorin M.S. & Pérez-Aradros, Beatriz & Salazar, Idana, 2024. "Resilience to the pandemic: The role of female management, multi-unit structure, and business model innovation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    5. Donald Houston, 2020. "Local resistance to rising unemployment in the context of the COVID‐19 mitigation policies across Great Britain," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1189-1209, December.
    6. Liangang Li & Pingyu Zhang & Xin Li, 2019. "Regional Economic Resilience of the Old Industrial Bases in China—A Case Study of Liaoning Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Marina Capparucci & Emanuela Ghignoni & Alina Verashchagina & Natalia Vorozhbit, 2015. "The Drivers of Innovation in the Italian Manufacturing Sector," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 111-128.
    8. Roberto Antonietti & Ron Boschma, 2021. "Social capital, resilience, and regional diversification in Italy [Social capital, innovation and growth: evidence from Europe]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(3), pages 762-777.
    9. Yi-Min Chen, 2008. "How Much Does Country Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 31(4), pages 404-435, October.
    10. Kazadi, Kande & Lievens, Annouk & Mahr, Dominik, 2016. "Stakeholder co-creation during the innovation process: Identifying capabilities for knowledge creation among multiple stakeholders," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 525-540.
    11. Martín-Rojas, Rodrigo & Garrido-Moreno, Aurora & García-Morales, Víctor J., 2023. "Social media use, corporate entrepreneurship and organizational resilience: A recipe for SMEs success in a post-Covid scenario," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    12. A D Adom, 2016. "Resilience of developing countries to shocks: Case study of WAEMU countries with SUR and VAR Approaches," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 105-138, September.
    13. Ugo Fratesi & Giovanni Perucca, 2018. "Territorial capital and the resilience of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 241-264, March.
    14. Kurikka, Heli & Grillitsch, Markus, 2020. "Resilience in the periphery: What an agency perspective can bring to the table," Papers in Innovation Studies 2020/7, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    15. Giulio Cainelli & Roberto Ganau & Marco Modica, 2019. "Does related variety affect regional resilience? New evidence from Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 657-680, June.
    16. Paolo Rizzi & Paola Graziano & Antonio Dallara, 2018. "A capacity approach to territorial resilience: the case of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 285-328, March.
    17. Brewis, Claire & Dibb, Sally & Meadows, Maureen, 2023. "Leveraging big data for strategic marketing: A dynamic capabilities model for incumbent firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    18. Elias Giannakis & Adriana Bruggeman, 2017. "Economic crisis and regional resilience: Evidence from Greece," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 451-476, August.
    19. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
    20. Fabio Mazzola & Iolanda Cascio & Rosalia Epifanio & Giuseppe Giacomo, 2018. "Territorial capital and growth over the Great Recession: a local analysis for Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 411-441, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:44:y:2023:i:3:p:1547-1564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.