[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v41y2022i6p1156-1180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel robust structural quadratic forecasting model and applications

Author

Listed:
  • He Jiang
Abstract
Recently, big data have been collected and stored for the purpose of forecasting in modern operations management. Nevertheless, a massive amount of data information does not provide additional advantages as expected when implementing forecasting or decision‐making tasks but causes a waste of time and memory for collection, storage, and computing. Besides hierarchical time series forecasting, strong and weak hierarchies in variable space have also been studied for years. To this end, structural variable selection methods that extract vital information from data by distinguishing important variable from nuisance variable with strong or weak hierarchy are favored by scholars. However, the existing structural variable selection methods focus on establishing models with Gaussian or binomial noises without considering heavy‐tailed distributions. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate a robust structured variable selection approach called structural quadratic quantile regression. The model hierarchies are achieved using a proper design of an optimization with check loss function for robustness, regularization term, and one constraint. In computation, a novel algorithm is derived based on Dykstra's algorithm and the proximal alternating direction method of multipliers (pADMM), and its convergence is theoretically guaranteed. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated using both simulation and empirical applications from numbers of scientific domains in forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • He Jiang, 2022. "A novel robust structural quadratic forecasting model and applications," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1156-1180, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:6:p:1156-1180
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2857
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.2857?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nataraja, Niranjan R. & Johnson, Andrew L., 2011. "Guidelines for using variable selection techniques in data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 662-669, December.
    2. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2009. "Variable selection and oversampling in the use of smooth support vector machines for predicting the default risk of companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 512-534.
    3. Ning Hao & Yang Feng & Hao Helen Zhang, 2018. "Model Selection for High-Dimensional Quadratic Regression via Regularization," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 615-625, April.
    4. Choi, Nam Hee & Li, William & Zhu, Ji, 2010. "Variable Selection With the Strong Heredity Constraint and Its Oracle Property," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 354-364.
    5. Wilms, Ines & Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "The predictive power of the business and bank sentiment of firms: A high-dimensional Granger Causality approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(1), pages 138-147.
    6. Yiyuan She & Zhifeng Wang & He Jiang, 2018. "Group Regularized Estimation Under Structural Hierarchy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(521), pages 445-454, January.
    7. Barro, Diana & Basso, Antonella, 2010. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 459-468, September.
    8. Jing Zeng, 2017. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 74-90, January.
    9. Isolina Alberto & Asunción Beamonte & Pilar Gargallo & Pedro M. Mateo & Manuel Salvador, 2010. "Variable selection in STAR models with neighbourhood effects using genetic algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(8), pages 728-750, December.
    10. Ning Hao & Hao Helen Zhang, 2014. "Interaction Screening for Ultrahigh-Dimensional Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1285-1301, September.
    11. Carrizosa, Emilio & Martín-Barragán, Belén & Morales, Dolores Romero, 2011. "Detecting relevant variables and interactions in supervised classification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 260-269, August.
    12. Ballings, Michel & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2015. "CRM in social media: Predicting increases in Facebook usage frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 248-260.
    13. Arbia, Giuseppe & Bramante, Riccardo & Facchinetti, Silvia & Zappa, Diego, 2018. "Modeling inter-country spatial financial interactions with Graphical Lasso: An application to sovereign co-risk evaluation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-79.
    14. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert & Huang, Tao, 2016. "Demand forecasting with high dimensional data: The case of SKU retail sales forecasting with intra- and inter-category promotional information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 245-257.
    15. She, Yiyuan, 2012. "An iterative algorithm for fitting nonconvex penalized generalized linear models with grouped predictors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2976-2990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Cheng & Chen, Haozhe & Jiang, Binyan, 2024. "HiQR: An efficient algorithm for high-dimensional quadratic regression with penalties," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Yao Dong & He Jiang, 2018. "A Two-Stage Regularization Method for Variable Selection and Forecasting in High-Order Interaction Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, November.
    3. Bottmer, Lea & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2022. "Sparse regression for large data sets with outliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(2), pages 782-794.
    4. Randall Reese & Guifang Fu & Geran Zhao & Xiaotian Dai & Xiaotian Li & Kenneth Chiu, 2022. "Epistasis Detection via the Joint Cumulant," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 514-532, December.
    5. Ning Hao & Hao Helen Zhang, 2017. "A Note on High-Dimensional Linear Regression With Interactions," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(4), pages 291-297, October.
    6. Feng Li & Yajie Li & Sanying Feng, 2021. "Estimation for Varying Coefficient Models with Hierarchical Structure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Sanying Feng & Menghan Zhang & Tiejun Tong, 2022. "Variable selection for functional linear models with strong heredity constraint," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 74(2), pages 321-339, April.
    8. Ryan A. Peterson & Joseph E. Cavanaugh, 2022. "Ranked sparsity: a cogent regularization framework for selecting and estimating feature interactions and polynomials," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 427-454, September.
    9. Bhatnagar, Sahir R. & Lu, Tianyuan & Lovato, Amanda & Olds, David L. & Kobor, Michael S. & Meaney, Michael J. & O'Donnell, Kieran & Yang, Archer Y. & Greenwood, Celia M.T., 2023. "A sparse additive model for high-dimensional interactions with an exposure variable," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    10. Xiong, Wei & Chen, Yaxian & Ma, Shuangge, 2023. "Unified model-free interaction screening via CV-entropy filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Gür Ali, Özden & Gürlek, Ragıp, 2020. "Automatic Interpretable Retail forecasting with promotional scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1389-1406.
    12. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Patricija Bajec & Danijela Tuljak-Suban, 2019. "An Integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process—Slack Based Measure-Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Evaluating the Efficiency of Logistics Service Providers Considering Undesirable Performance Criteria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Peyrache, Antonio & Rose, Christiern & Sicilia, Gabriela, 2020. "Variable selection in Data Envelopment Analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 644-659.
    15. Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo, 2020. "Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    16. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    17. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-037 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Zeyu Bian & Erica E. M. Moodie & Susan M. Shortreed & Sahir Bhatnagar, 2023. "Variable selection in regression‐based estimation of dynamic treatment regimes," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 988-999, June.
    19. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
    20. Qian, Qian & Chao, Xiangrui & Feng, Hairong, 2023. "Internal or external control? How to respond to credit risk contagion in complex enterprises network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    21. Vasilios Plakandaras & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is there a Role for the U.S. – China Trade War?," Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:41:y:2022:i:6:p:1156-1180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.