[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v42y2022i5p803-822.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A trend factor in commodity futures markets: Any economic gains from using information over investment horizons?

Author

Listed:
  • Yufeng Han
  • Lingfei Kong
Abstract
This paper identifies a trend factor that exploits the short‐, intermediate‐, and long‐run moving averages of settlement prices in commodity futures markets. The trend factor generates statistically and economically large returns during the post‐financialization period 2004–2020. It outperforms the well‐known momentum factor by more than nine times the Sharpe ratio and has less downside risk. The trend factor cannot be explained by the existing factor models and is priced cross‐sectionally. Finally, we find that the trend factor is correlated with funding liquidity measured by the TED spread. Overall, the results indicate that there are significant economic gains from using the information on historical prices in commodity futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yufeng Han & Lingfei Kong, 2022. "A trend factor in commodity futures markets: Any economic gains from using information over investment horizons?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 803-822, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:42:y:2022:i:5:p:803-822
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22291
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22291?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Grundy, Bruce D. & Kim, Youngsoo, 2002. "Stock Market Volatility in a Heterogeneous Information Economy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Ben R. Marshall & Nhut H. Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2012. "Commodity Liquidity Measurement and Transaction Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 599-638.
    5. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
    6. Lim, Bryan Y. & Wang, Jiaguo (George) & Yao, Yaqiong, 2018. "Time-series momentum in nearly 100 years of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 283-296.
    7. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-80, February.
    8. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    9. Han, Yufeng & Zhou, Guofu & Zhu, Yingzi, 2016. "A trend factor: Any economic gains from using information over investment horizons?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 352-375.
    10. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    11. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
    12. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    13. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    14. Amit Goyal & Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2018. "Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Tests of Return Predictability: What Is the Difference?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1784-1824.
    15. Athina Georgopoulou & Jiaguo (George) Wang, 2017. "The Trend Is Your Friend: Time-Series Momentum Strategies across Equity and Commodity Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1557-1592.
    16. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joelle, 2018. "The skewness of commodity futures returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 143-158.
    17. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, April.
    18. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Alberto G. Rossi, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Risk Underlying the Cross Section of Commodity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 619-641, February.
    19. Wenjin Kang & K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Ke Tang, 2020. "A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 377-417, February.
    20. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    21. Basu, Devraj & Miffre, Joëlle, 2013. "Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2652-2664.
    22. Han, Yufeng & Hu, Ting & Yang, Jian, 2016. "Are there exploitable trends in commodity futures prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 214-234.
    23. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    24. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    25. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    26. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao & Zhou, Guofu, 2020. "Time series momentum: Is it there?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 774-794.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    28. Sakkas, Athanasios & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2020. "Factor based commodity investing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    29. Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
    30. Kim, Abby Y. & Tse, Yiuman & Wald, John K., 2016. "Time series momentum and volatility scaling," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 103-124.
    31. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Huson Ali Ahmed & Seema Narayan, 2015. "Do Momentum‐Based Trading Strategies Work in the Commodity Futures Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(9), pages 868-891, September.
    32. Qian Shen & Andrew C. Szakmary & Subhash C. Sharma, 2007. "An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 227-256, March.
    33. Marta Szymanowska & Frans Roon & Theo Nijman & Rob Goorbergh, 2014. "An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 453-482, February.
    34. repec:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:1557-1592. is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    2. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
    3. Yasuhiro Iwanaga & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Commodity momentum decomposition," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 198-216, February.
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2021. "The alpha momentum effect in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.
    6. John Hua Fan & Sebastian Binnewies & Sanuri De Silva, 2023. "Wisdom of crowds and commodity pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 1040-1068, August.
    7. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    8. Papailias, Fotis & Liu, Jiadong & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2021. "Return signal momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2021. "Managing volatility in commodity momentum," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 758-782, May.
    10. Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Curve momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
    12. Rad, Hossein & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Miffre, Joëlle & Faff, Robert, 2020. "Does sophistication of the weighting scheme enhance the performance of long-short commodity portfolios?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 164-180.
    13. Meng Han, 2023. "Commodity momentum and reversal: Do they exist, and if so, why?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1204-1237, September.
    14. Loïc Maréchal, 2023. "A tale of two premiums revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 580-614, May.
    15. Fan, John Hua & Qiao, Xiao, 2023. "Commodity momentum: A tale of countries and sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    16. Sakkas, Athanasios & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2020. "Factor based commodity investing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2020. "The untold story of commodity futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 671-706, April.
    18. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Wese Simen, Chardin & Wichmann, Robert, 2023. "Convenience yield risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Tobias Wiest, 2023. "Momentum: what do we know 30 years after Jegadeesh and Titman’s seminal paper?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(1), pages 95-114, March.
    20. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joelle, 2021. "The risk premia of energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:42:y:2022:i:5:p:803-822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.