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Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Lahaye
  • Sébastien Laurent
  • Christopher J. Neely
Abstract
We analyze and assess the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the discontinuities in many assets: stock index futures, bond futures, exchange rates, and gold. We use bi-power variation and the recently proposed non-parametric techniques of Lee and Mykland (2006) to extract jumps. Beyond characterizing the jump and cojump dynamics of many assets, we analyze how news arrival causes jumps and cojumps and estimate limited-dependent-variable models to quantify the impact of surprises. We confirm previous findings that some surprises create jumps. However, many announcements do not create jumps and many jumps are not related to announcements. The propensity of surprises to create jumps differs across asset classes, i.e., exchange rates, bonds, stock index. Payroll announcements are most important on stocks and bonds futures markets. Trade related news often creates cojumps on exchange rate markets.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 893-921, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:6:p:893-921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477.
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