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Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

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  • Xiaomeng Cui
  • Wei Xie
Abstract
Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal re‐arrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing‐season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993–2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long‐run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaomeng Cui & Wei Xie, 2022. "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 249-272, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:104:y:2022:i:1:p:249-272
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12227
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    Cited by:

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    3. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Zhang, Jingfang & Malikov, Emir & Miao, Ruiqing & Ghosh, Prasenjit N., 2024. "Geography of Climate Change Adaptation in U.S. Agriculture: Evidence from Spatially Varying Long-Differences Approach," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343758, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. François Bareille & Raja Chakir, 2024. "Structural identification of weather impacts on crop yields: Disentangling agronomic from adaptation effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 989-1019, May.
    6. Ölkers, Tim & Liu, Shuang & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2023. "A typology of Malian farmers and their credit repayment performance - An unsupervised machine learning approach," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334547, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    7. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn Mesfin & Gassmann, Franziska, 2022. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Land Allocation Decisions: Evidence from Maize Farmers in Ethiopia," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321171, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
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    10. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    11. Feriga, Moustafa & Lozano Gracia, Nancy & Serneels, Pieter, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work Lessons for Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 16914, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Lis-Castiblanco, Catherine & Jordi, Louis, 2024. "Adaptation to Frost and Heat Risks in French Viticulture: Are Grape Growers Dumb Farmers?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343569, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    17. Muziyun Liu & Hui Liu, 2023. "Influence of Climate Change on Carbon Emissions during Grain Production and Its Mechanism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, June.
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    22. Stefan Wimmer & Christian Stetter & Jonas Schmitt & Robert Finger, 2024. "Farm‐level responses to weather trends: A structural model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 1241-1273, May.

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