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Government debt spillovers and creditworthiness in a federation

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Listed:
  • Stuart Landon
  • Constance E. Smith
Abstract
Estimates are presented for the impact of debt accumulation by the central and subcentral governments of a federation on the creditworthiness of other federation member governments. The estimates, calculated using an ordered probit model and Canadian provincial data, indicate that debt accumulation by the central government has reduced the creditworthiness of indebted provincial governments. Interprovincial debt accumulation effects are negative but relatively small, except for the debt of the largest province, which has a strong positive effect on the creditworthiness of the other provinces. These findings may have implications for other federations and associated jurisdictions, such as the European Union. JEL Classification: H63, F36 Les effets de retombée de la dette gouvernementale et la cote de crédit dans une fédération. On calcule l'impact de l'accumulation de la dette par les gouvernements fédéral et sub‐fédéraux dans une fédération sur la cote de crédit des autres gouvernements de la fédération. Ces calibrations, à l'aide d'un modèle probit en utilisant les données provinciales canadiennes, montrent que l'accumulation de la dette par le gouvernement central a réduit la cote de crédit des gouvernements provinciaux endettés. Les effets trans‐provinciaux de l'accumulation de la dette sont négatifs mais relativement faibles, sauf dans le cas de la province la plus grande, laquelle a un fort effet sur la cote de crédit des autres provinces. Ces résultats peuvent avoir des implications pour d'autres fédérations comme l'Union Européenne.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2000. "Government debt spillovers and creditworthiness in a federation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 634-661, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:33:y:2000:i:3:p:634-661
    DOI: 10.1111/0008-4085.00034
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    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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