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Exports, investment and policy uncertainty

Author

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  • Andrew Greenland
  • Mihai Ion
  • John Lopresti
Abstract
Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher. Exportations, investissement et incertitude politique. En nous appuyant sur une littérature soulignant l’importance du report des investissements en période d’incertitude politique, nous avons étudié la façon dont de telles périodes affectaient les exportations au sein de 18 grandes économies. Nous avons décomposé les flux commerciaux bilatéraux agrégés entre 1995 et 2013 en éléments de marge intensifs et extensifs, puis avons appliqué un modèle de gravité pour évaluer l’incidence de ces périodes d’incertitude politique pour chacune de ces marges. Conformément à la théorie, une incertitude politique accrue fait baisser à la fois les valeurs commerciales et les marges extensives, mais augmente surtout les marges intensives. Au cours d’analyses complémentaires, nous avons utilisé divers indicateurs relativement aux coûts irrécupérables liés à l’export, et avons démontré que les effets d’une incertitude politique sont plus prononcés lorsque les coûts irrécupérables sont plus élevés.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Greenland & Mihai Ion & John Lopresti, 2019. "Exports, investment and policy uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 1248-1288, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:52:y:2019:i:3:p:1248-1288
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12400
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    3. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Ganwen Zheng & Songping Zhu, 2021. "Research on the Effectiveness of China’s Macro Control Policy on Output and Technological Progress under Economic Policy Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Baley, Isaac & Veldkamp, Laura & Waugh, Michael, 2020. "Can global uncertainty promote international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Yiping Sun & Chengjun Wu & Xiaoming Zhu & Pingguan Bian, 2022. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Clougherty, Joseph A. & Zhang, Nan, 2023. "Antitrust policy and inward FDI: The impact of policy risk and uncertainty on U.S. inward-FDI flows," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    9. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Pedro Salgado, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainties and business confidence in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 38-56.
    10. Rosenfeld, Martin T. W. & Stefansky, Andreas (ed.), 2021. ""Metropolregion Mitteldeutschland" aus raumwissenschaftlicher Sicht," Arbeitsberichte der ARL, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft, volume 30, number 30.
    11. Alejandro G Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2021. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1150-1185.
    12. Zhang, Li & Hu, Shiwei, 2023. "Foreign uncertainty and domestic exporter dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Songping Zhu & Gaofeng Yu, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Industrial Output: The Regulatory Role of Technological Progress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    14. Huizheng Liu & Jingyi Zhang & Qi Han & Wenshen Pan & Muhammad Afaq Haider Jafri, 2022. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Stability of Enterprises Embedded in a Global Value Chain," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 1-3.
    15. Liu Qing & Zhang Yanchao & Li Langxing & Li Shuaihang, 2021. "The Interactive Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Credit Constraint Heterogeneity on Firms’ Export Margins: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(6), pages 575-607, December.
    16. Ruxu Zhang & Yahui Qu, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    17. Rosenfeld, Martin T. W., 2021. "Wie sind die mitteldeutsche Metropolregion und ihre Aktivitäten zu bewerten?," Arbeitsberichte der ARL: Aufsätze, in: Rosenfeld, Martin T. W. & Stefansky, Andreas (ed.), "Metropolregion Mitteldeutschland" aus raumwissenschaftlicher Sicht, volume 30, pages 194-206, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.

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    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

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