[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/coacre/v19y2002i1p117-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Institutional Ownership and the Extent to which Stock Prices Reflect Future Earnings

Author

Listed:
  • James Jiambalvo
  • Shivaram Rajgopal
  • Mohan Venkatachalam
Abstract
Articles in the financial press suggest that institutional investors are overly focused on current profitability, which suggests that as institutional ownership increases, stock prices reflect less current period information that is predictive of future period earnings. On the other hand, institutional investors are often characterized in academic research as sophisticated investors and sophisticated investors should be better able to use current†period information to predict future earnings compared with other owners. According to this characterization, as institutional ownership increases, stock prices should reflect more current†period information that is predictive of future period earnings. Consistent with this latter view, we find that the extent to which stock prices lead earnings is positively related to the percentage of institutional ownership. This result holds after controlling for various factors that affect the relation between price and earnings. It also holds when we control for endogenous portfolio choices of institutions (e.g., institutional investors may be attracted to firms in richer information environments where stock prices tend to lead earnings). Further, a regression of stock returns on order backlog, conditional on the percentage of institutional ownership, indicates that institutional owners place more weight on order backlog compared with other owners. This result is consistent with institutional owners using non†earnings information to predict future earnings. It also explains, in part, why prices lead earnings to a greater extent when there is a higher concentration of institutional owners.

Suggested Citation

  • James Jiambalvo & Shivaram Rajgopal & Mohan Venkatachalam, 2002. "Institutional Ownership and the Extent to which Stock Prices Reflect Future Earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 117-145, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:19:y:2002:i:1:p:117-145
    DOI: 10.1506/EQUA-NVJ9-E712-UKBJ
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1506/EQUA-NVJ9-E712-UKBJ
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1506/EQUA-NVJ9-E712-UKBJ?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael E. Porter, 1992. "Capital Choices: Changing The Way America Invests In Industry," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 5(2), pages 4-16, June.
    2. Easton, Pd & Harris, Ts, 1991. "Earnings As An Explanatory Variable For Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 19-36.
    3. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, 2001. "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 229-259.
    4. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    5. Ittner, Christopher D. & Larcker, David F., 2001. "Assessing empirical research in managerial accounting: a value-based management perspective," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 349-410, December.
    6. Anderson, Ronald C. & Lee, D. Scott, 1997. "Ownership Studies: The Data Source Does Matter," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 311-329, September.
    7. Kothari, S. P. & Sloan, Richard G., 1992. "Information in prices about future earnings : Implications for earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 143-171, August.
    8. Rendleman, Richard J, Jr & Jones, Charles P & Latane, Henry A, 1987. "Further Insight into the Standarized Unexpected Earnings Anomaly: Size and Serial Correlation Effects," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 131-144, February.
    9. Obrien, Pc & Bhushan, R, 1990. "Analyst Following And Institutional Ownership," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28, pages 55-76.
    10. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    11. Easton, Peter D. & Harris, Trevor S. & Ohlson, James A., 1992. "Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns : The case of long return intervals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 119-142, August.
    12. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Firm size and the information content of prices with respect to earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 111-138, July.
    13. Kormendi, Roger & Lipe, Robert, 1987. "Earnings Innovations, Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 323-345, July.
    14. Brian J. Bushee, 2001. "Do Institutional Investors Prefer Near†Term Earnings over Long†Run Value?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 207-246, June.
    15. Austin, David H, 1993. "An Event-Study Approach to Measuring Innovative Output: The Case of Biotechnology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 253-258, May.
    16. Walther, BR, 1997. "Investor sophistication and market earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 157-179.
    17. Freeman, Rn & Tse, S, 1989. "The Multiperiod Information-Content Of Accounting Earnings - Confirmations And Contradictions Of Previous Earnings Reports," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 49-79.
    18. Warfield, Terry D. & Wild, John J. & Wild, Kenneth L., 1995. "Managerial ownership, accounting choices, and informativeness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 61-91, July.
    19. Jacobson, Robert & Aaker, David, 1993. "Myopic management behavior with efficient, but imperfect, financial markets : A comparison of information asymmetries in the U.S. and Japan," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 383-405, October.
    20. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
    21. Shiller, 021Robert J. & Pound, John, 1989. "Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-66, August.
    22. Holthausen, Robert W. & Larcker, David F. & Sloan, Richard G., 1995. "Business unit innovation and the structure of executive compensation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 279-313, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    2. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.
    3. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    4. Kothari, S. P. & Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1995. "Price and return models," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-192, September.
    5. Cheung, Joseph K. & Kim, Jeong-Bon & Lee, Jason, 1999. "The Impact of Institutional Characteristics on Return-Earnings Associations in Japan," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 571-596, 010.
    6. Irena Jindrichovska, 2001. "The relationship between accounting numbers and returns: some empirical evidence from the emerging market of the Czech Republic," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 107-131.
    7. Mohamed Naceur Mahjoubi & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2015. "Earnings Response Coefficient as a Measure of Market Expectations: Evidence from Tunis Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 377-389.
    8. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    10. Truong, Cameron & Corrado, Charles & Chen, Yangyang, 2012. "The options market response to accounting earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-450.
    11. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    12. Hugon, Artur & Muslu, Volkan, 2010. "Market demand for conservative analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 42-57, May.
    13. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    14. Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
    15. David S. Jenkins & Gregory D. Kane & Uma Velury, 2009. "Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1041-1058.
    16. Ruey S. Tsay & Yi-Mien Lin & Hsiao-Wen Wang, 2009. "Residual income, non-earnings information, and information content," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 487-511.
    17. Eccher, Elizabeth A. & Ramesh, K. & Thiagarajan, S. Ramu, 1996. "Fair value disclosures by bank holding companies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 79-117, October.
    18. Guang‐Zheng Chen & Edmund C. Keung, 2018. "Corporate diversification, institutional investors and internal control quality," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 751-786, September.
    19. Fahd Alduais, 2020. "An empirical study of the earnings–returns association: an evidence from China’s A-share market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Alessandro Mechelli & Riccardo Cimini, 2014. "The value relevance of earnings and book value across the EU. A comparative Analysis," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 83-113.
    21. Watts, Ross L., 1992. "Accounting choice theory and market-based research in accounting," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 235-267.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:19:y:2002:i:1:p:117-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1911-3846 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.