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Konjunktur schwächt sich weiter ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Werner Hölzl
  • Michael Klien
  • Agnes Kügler
Abstract
Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests zeigen seit Mitte 2018 eine Abkühlung der Konjunktur. Insbesondere in der Sachgütererzeugung schätzen die Unternehmen die Konjunktur mittlerweile mehrheitlich skeptisch ein. Die WIFO-Konjunkturampel bestätigt die Eintrübung der Stimmung im österreichischen Unternehmenssektor. Dementsprechend steigt die Unsicherheit wieder, der Unsicherheitsindikator liegt aber noch unter dem Durchschnitt der letzten fünf Jahre. Die Kapazitätsauslastung blieb im Oktober im langfristigen Vergleich hoch, die Entwicklung flachte aber insbesondere in der Sachgütererzeugung und der Bauwirtschaft ab. Diese Tendenz bestätigen auch die Angaben der Unternehmen zu den Hindernissen für ihre Tätigkeit: Zunehmend wird hier der Faktor "Mangel an Nachfrage" genannt, allerdings beschränkt vor allem auf die Sachgütererzeugung. Meistgenanntes Hindernis ist nach wie vor der "Mangel an Arbeitskräften".

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  • Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2019. "Konjunktur schwächt sich weiter ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2019," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(11), pages 807-819, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2019:i:11:p:807-819
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
    2. Werner Hölzl & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "Der WIFO-Konjunkturtest: Methodik und Prognoseeigenschaften," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(12), pages 835-850, December.
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    5. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2015. "Bestimmung einer Konjunkturampel für Österreich auf Basis des WIFO-Konjunkturtests," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(3), pages 175-183, March.
    6. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
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    1. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2020. "Konjunktureinschätzung stürzt infolge der COVID-19-Pandemie ab. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(5), pages 337-345, May.
    2. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2024. "Business Cycle Sentiment Subdued at Start of the Year. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2024," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 3, February.
    3. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Zweite COVID-19-Welle bestimmt Konjunkturbeurteilung der Unternehmen. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Jänner 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(2), pages 105-114, February.
    4. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Economic Sentiment Continues to Brighten, Supply Bottlenecks and Labour Shortages Hamper Production. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of July 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 10, August.
    5. Werner Hölzl & Julia Bachtrögler-Unger & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Fourth COVID-19 Wave Dampens Economic Sentiment. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 4, February.
    6. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Economic Assessments of Austrian Companies in the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 4, February.
    7. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Heterogeneous Development of Economic Assessments. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of April 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 9, June.
    8. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2023. "Slight Improvement in Economic Sentiment at the Beginning of the Year. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of January 2023," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 3, February.
    9. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Economic Expectations Weaken. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of July 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 11, August.
    10. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Labour Shortages and Supply Bottlenecks Hamper Business Activity. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 14, November.
    11. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Geschäftstätigkeit durch Arbeitskräftemangel und Lieferengpässe beeinträchtigt. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(11), pages 793-802, November.
    12. Werner Hölzl & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2022. "Downturn Continues. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest Quarterly Survey of October 2022," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 17, November.
    13. Werner Hölzl & Michael Klien & Agnes Kügler, 2021. "Konjunktureinschätzungen verbessern sich, Lieferengpässe hemmen die Produktion. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom April 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(5), pages 361-370, May.

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