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South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa

Author

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  • Bedasso Biniam E.

    (Collaborative Africa Budget Reform Initiative (CABRI), Southdowns Ridge Office Park, Cnr John Vorster & Nellmapius Drive, Centurion, Pretoria 0062, South Africa)

  • Jaupart Pascal

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) and Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. EnglandUnited Kingdom)

Abstract
Little is known about the political consequences of immigration in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we estimate the effect of exposure to immigration on election outcomes in South Africa. Our analysis is based on municipality panel data and an instrumental variable (IV) strategy exploiting historical migrant settlement patterns. We find that local immigration concentration has a negative impact on the performance of the incumbent African National Congress, whereas support for the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, is found to increase in municipalities with a larger immigrant presence. These effects hold regardless of the skill levels of immigrants in a municipality. In terms of mechanisms, competition over jobs and local public services as well as ethnic diversity and cultural factors influence how immigration affects election outcomes. These findings are robust to a broad range of sensitivity checks. They provide evidence that immigration can be a politically salient issue in migrant-destination Sub-Saharan African countries. They also show that immigration can affect election results even in contexts where there is no single issue anti-migrant party.

Suggested Citation

  • Bedasso Biniam E. & Jaupart Pascal, 2020. "South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:izajdm:v:11:y:2020:i:1:p:47:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2020-0015
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    2. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; elections; South Africa; South-South migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

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