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Forecasts for activity rate on labour market in Romania using econometric models

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy)

Abstract
The main objective of this study is related to the econometric modelling of the activity rate in Romania and the construction of prognoses. A dynamic panel data model with quarterly data, covering the period from Q1:1996-Q4:2013, was constructed. The values were registered for the 4 Romanian macroregions. Predictions for 2011-2013 at national level were obtained by aggregation. In parallel, an autoregressive model of order 1 and a vectorial-autoregressive mdel were built for forecasting. In the first period, 99.98% of the activity rate variation is due to this variable, while in the second period, the average number of retired people influences the activity rate in proportion of 4.129%. The influence of number of retired people grows in time, arriving to 9.501% in the 10th period. All the accuracy indicators showed that the naive forecasts were more accurate than the other prediction based on VAR and dynamic panel model on the horizon 2011-2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "Forecasts for activity rate on labour market in Romania using econometric models," HOLISTICA Journal of Business and Public Administration, Association Holistic Research Academic (HoRA), vol. 6(1), pages 89-101, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:urn:urnste:v:6:y:2015:i:1:p:89-101
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    activity rate; labour market; dynamic panel; VAR model; random walk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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