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Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Adelino
  • Antoinette Schoar
  • Felipe Severino
Abstract
This paper documents a number of key facts about the evolution of mortgage debt, homeownership, debt burden, and subsequent delinquency during the recent housing boom and Great Recession. We show that the mortgage expansion was shared across the entire income distribution; that is, the flow and stock of debt rose across all income groups (except for the top 5%). The mortgage expansion was especially pronounced in areas with increased house prices, and the speed at which houses turned over (churn) in these areas went up significantly. However, the average loan-to-value ratios (LTV) at origination did not increase over the boom period. While homeownership rates increased for the middle- and upper-income households, there was no increase in homeownership for the lowest income groups. Finally, default rates postcrisis went up predominantly in areas with large house price drops, especially for high-income and high-FICO borrowers. These results are consistent with a view that the run-up in mortgage debt over the precrisis period was driven by rising home values and expectations of increasing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2018. "Dynamics of Housing Debt in the Recent Boom and Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 265-311.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/696054
    DOI: 10.1086/696054
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    Cited by:

    1. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. S. Borağan Aruoba & Ronel Elul & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2022. "Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints," NBER Working Papers 30591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Albanesi, Stefania & DeGiorgi, Giacomo & Nosal, Jaromir, 2022. "Credit growth and the financial crisis: A new narrative," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 118-139.
    4. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    5. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    6. Ono, Arito & Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2021. "Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "The Saving Glut of the Rich," NBER Working Papers 26941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Margaret Jacobson, 2019. "Beliefs, Aggregate Risk, and the U.S. Housing Boom," 2019 Meeting Papers 1549, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Adam J. Levitin & Desen Lin & Susan M. Wachter, 2020. "Mortgage Risk Premiums during the Housing Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 421-468, May.
    10. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2018. "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership," NBER Working Papers 25090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Manuel Adelino & William B. McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," NBER Working Papers 27499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Eunseong Ma & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "Homeownership And Housing Transitions: Explaining The Demographic Composition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 599-638, May.
    13. Daniel Ringo, 2023. "Mortgage Lending, Default, and the Community Reinvestment Act," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 77-102, February.
    14. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    15. Manuel Adelino & W. Ben McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," Working Papers 20-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    17. Morris A Davis & William D Larson & Stephen D Oliner & Benjamin R Smith, 2023. "A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 581-618.
    18. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt," CESifo Working Paper Series 8201, CESifo.
    19. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    20. Hu, Debao & Guo, Fang & Shang, Jianing & Zhang, Xinyue, 2024. "Does digital finance increase household risk-taking? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1197-1210.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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