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Changes in Postsecondary Choices by Ability and Income: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth

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  • Michael F. Lovenheim
  • C. Lockwood Reynolds
Abstract
We characterize changes over time in the choices high school graduates make concerning 2-year attendance, 4-year attendance, and college nonattendance across the joint income and ability distribution. We find that college nonattendance decreased substantially between cohorts for both men and women and that these declines were larger for higher-ability students. On the 2-year/4-year margin, there is evidence of growing ability constraints among women. Furthermore, income has become more important among higher-ability men, and increases in 2-year attendance among high-ability but low-income men come at the expense of 4-year college enrollment. State-level college costs explain little of the changes we document.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2011. "Changes in Postsecondary Choices by Ability and Income: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 70-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/660123
    DOI: 10.1086/660123
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert B. Archibald & David H. Feldman & Peter McHenry, 2015. "A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance: Evidence from NLS-72 and ELS:2002," Working Papers 147, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    2. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "The evolution of the US family income–schooling relationship and educational selectivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 841-859, November.
    3. Nicholas W Papageorge & Kevin Thom, 2020. "Genes, Education, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1351-1399.
    4. Emanuela Ghignoni, 2015. "Family background and university dropouts during the crisis: the case of Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 169, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    5. Steven J. Haider & Kathleen McGarry, 2018. "Postsecondary Schooling and Parental Resources: Evidence from the PSID and HRS," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 13(1), pages 72-96, Winter.
    6. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen & Xingfei Liu, 2022. "The Evolution of Inequality in Education Trajectories and Graduation Outcomes in the US," Working Papers 2022-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Andrews, Rodney & Li, Jing & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2014. "Heterogeneous paths through college: Detailed patterns and relationships with graduation and earnings," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 93-108.
    8. Ben Backes & Harry Holzer & Erin Velez, 2015. "Is it worth it? Postsecondary education and labor market outcomes for the disadvantaged," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.
    9. Benjamin T. Skinner, 2019. "Choosing College in the 2000s: An Updated Analysis Using the Conditional Logistic Choice Model," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 60(2), pages 153-183, March.
    10. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2012. "Credit Constraints in Education," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 225-256, July.
    11. Harris, Jorgen, 2022. "Do wages fall when women enter an occupation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2013. "The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35.
    13. Lockwood Reynolds, C., 2012. "Where to attend? Estimating the effects of beginning college at a two-year institution," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 345-362.
    14. Johnson, Eric & Reynolds, C. Lockwood, 2013. "The effect of household hospitalizations on the educational attainment of youth," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-182.
    15. Barnette Justin & Odongo Kennedy & Reynolds C. Lockwood, 2021. "Changes Over Time in the Cost of Job Loss for Young Men and Women," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 335-378, January.
    16. Robert B. Archibald & David H. Feldman & Peter McHenry, 2015. "A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 265-297.
    17. Tobias Meyer & Stephan L. Thomsen, 2016. "How Important Is Secondary School Duration for Postsecondary Education Decisions? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(1), pages 67-108.
    18. Liu, Vivian Y.T. & Belfield, Clive R. & Trimble, Madeline J., 2015. "The medium-term labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from North Carolina," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-55.
    19. Lovenheim, Michael F. & Owens, Emily G., 2014. "Does federal financial aid affect college enrollment? Evidence from drug offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Gonzalo Castex & Evgenia Kogan Dechter, 2014. "The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 685-710.
    21. Lutz Hendricks & Christopher Herrington & Todd Schoellman, 2021. "College Quality and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 184-215, January.
    22. Bruce, Donald J. & Carruthers, Celeste K., 2014. "Jackpot? The impact of lottery scholarships on enrollment in Tennessee," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-44.

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