[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v104y2022i5p1028-1045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Labor Market Conditions at Entry on Workers' Long-Term Skills

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime Arellano-Bover
Abstract
Using data on adults' cognitive skills from nineteen countries, this paper shows that labor market conditions during the education-to-work transition affected workers' long-term skill development. Workers who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18 to 25 have lower skills at ages 36 to 59. Unemployment rates at ages 26 to 35 do not have such an effect. Skill inequality is affected: those with less educated parents experience most of the negative effects. Using German panel data on skills, I document a mechanism related to heterogeneous skill development across firms: young workers at large firms experience higher skill growth than those at small firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Arellano-Bover, 2022. "The Effect of Labor Market Conditions at Entry on Workers' Long-Term Skills," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1028-1045, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:104:y:2022:i:5:p:1028-1045
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01008
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1162/rest_a_01008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunha, Flavio & Heckman, James J. & Lochner, Lance, 2006. "Interpreting the Evidence on Life Cycle Skill Formation," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 697-812, Elsevier.
    2. Jaime Arellano-Bover, 2024. "Career Consequences of Firm Heterogeneity for Young Workers: First Job and Firm Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 549-589.
    3. Per-Anders Edin & Magnus Gustavsson, 2008. "Time Out of Work and Skill Depreciation," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(2), pages 163-180, January.
    4. John C. Haltiwanger & Henry R. Hyatt & Lisa B. Kahn & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Cyclical Job Ladders by Firm Size and Firm Wage," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 52-85, April.
    5. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    6. Leist, Anja K. & Hessel, Philipp & Avendano, Mauricio, 2014. "Do economic recessions during early and mid-adulthood influence cognitive function in older age?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54234, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Hanushek, Eric A. & Schwerdt, Guido & Wiederhold, Simon & Woessmann, Ludger, 2015. "Returns to skills around the world: Evidence from PIAAC," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 103-130.
    8. Schwandt, Hannes & Wachter, Till von, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 12908, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Stefan Bender & Till von Wachter, 2006. "In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1679-1705, December.
    10. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    11. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    13. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    14. Lucas C Coffman & John J Conlon & Clayton R Featherstone & Judd B Kessler, 2019. "Liquidity Affects Job Choice: Evidence from Teach for America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2203-2236.
    15. Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
    16. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    17. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2014. "Measuring the Impacts of Teachers I: Evaluating Bias in Teacher Value-Added Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2593-2632, September.
    18. Sievertsen, Hans Henrik, 2016. "Local unemployment and the timing of post-secondary schooling," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    19. Petrongolo, Barbara & San Segundo, Maria J., 2002. "Staying-on at school at 16: the impact of labor market conditions in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 353-365, August.
    20. Victoria Gregory, 2020. "Firms as Learning Environments: Implications for Earnings Dynamics and Job Search," Working Papers 2020-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2023.
    21. Hannes Schwandt & Till M. von Wachter, 2020. "Socio-Economic Decline and Death: The Life-Cycle Impacts of Recessions for Labor Market Entrants," NBER Working Papers 26638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2014. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 705-738, July.
    23. Sherwin Rosen, 1972. "Learning and Experience in the Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 7(3), pages 326-342.
    24. Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub01-1.
    25. Rubinstein, Yona & Weiss, Yoram, 2006. "Post Schooling Wage Growth: Investment, Search and Learning," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 1-67, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gholami, Mahdi & Muehlemann, Samuel, 2024. "Math Skills, Selection in Training Firms, and Post-Training Wages," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302349, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    3. Mask, Joshua, 2023. "Salary history bans and healing scars from past recessions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Eric A. Hanushek & Lavinia Kinne & Frauke Witthoeft & Ludger Woessmann, 2024. "Age and Cognitive Skills: Use It or Lose It," Papers 2410.00790, arXiv.org.
    5. Marta Martínez-Matute & Ernesto Villanueva, 2023. "Task specialization and cognitive skills: evidence from PIAAC and IALS," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 59-93, March.
    6. Kim, Sun Hyung, 2023. "The importance of social skills in recovery from graduating in a recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 387-411.
    7. Elena Ashtari Tafti & Mimosa Distefano & Tetyana Surovtseva, 2024. "Gender, careers and peers' gender mix," CEP Discussion Papers dp2008, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Lorenzo Cappellari & Daniele Checchi & Marco Ovidi, 2022. "The effects of schooling on cognitive skills: evidence from education expansions," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def122, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Arellano-Bover, Jaime & Saltiel, Fernando, 2021. "Differences in On-the-Job Learning across Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 14473, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Webber, Douglas, 2022. "Government regulation and wages: Evidence from continuing coverage mandates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Lucas Finamor, 2022. "Labor market conditions and college graduation: evidence from Brazil," Papers 2201.11047, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    12. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
    13. Sébastien Willis, 2022. "Workplace Segregation and the Labour Market Performance of Immigrants," CESifo Working Paper Series 9895, CESifo.
    14. Patrick Bennett & Jessica Botros, 2024. "Intergenerational Mobility, Economic Shocks, and the Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 10, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    15. Mahdi Gholami & Samuel Muehlemann, 2024. "Mastering Math: A Gateway to Better Firms and Higher Earnings," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0212, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised May 2024.
    16. Battisti, Michele & Kinne, Lavinia & Fedorets, Alexandra, 2022. "Cognitive Skills among Adults: An Impeding Factor for Gender Convergence?," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264110, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Shisham Adhikari & Athanasios Geromichalos & Ioannis Kospentaris, 2023. "How much work experience do you need to get your first job? The macroeconomic implications of bias against labor market entrants," Working Papers 357, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    18. Saltiel, Fernando & Tuttle, Cody, 2022. "Business Cycles and Police Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 15665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Berniell, Inés & Gasparini, Leonardo & Marchionni, Mariana & Viollaz, Mariana, 2023. "Lucky women in unlucky cohorts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    20. Jennifer Graves & Zoë Kuehn, 2022. "Higher education decisions and macroeconomic conditions at age eighteen," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 171-241, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaime Arellano-Bover, 2024. "Career Consequences of Firm Heterogeneity for Young Workers: First Job and Firm Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 549-589.
    2. Till von Wachter, 2020. "The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 168-194, Fall.
    3. ASAI Yukiko & Dmitri K. KOUSTAS, 2021. "Temporary Work Contracts and Female Labor Market Outcomes," Discussion papers 21071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    5. Lucas Finamor, 2022. "Labor market conditions and college graduation: evidence from Brazil," Papers 2201.11047, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    6. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Gabriel Burdin, 2023. "Employee Owned Firms and the Careers of Young Workers," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 113, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Petru Crudu, 2023. "Long-term effects of early adverse labour market conditions: A Causal Machine Learning approach," Working Papers 2023:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
    10. Bičáková, Alena & Cortes, Guido Matias & Mazza, Jacopo, 2023. "Make your own luck: The wage gains from starting college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Mask, Joshua, 2023. "Salary history bans and healing scars from past recessions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Del Bono, Emilia & Morando, Greta, 2021. "For Some, Luck Matters More: The Impact of the Great Recession on the Early Careers of Graduates from Different Socio-Economic Backgrounds," IZA Discussion Papers 14540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Garrett Anstreicher, 2020. "Family Formation and the Great Recession," Working Papers 20-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. Asai, Yukiko & Koustas, Dmitri K., 2023. "Temporary work contracts and female labor market outcomes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1-20.
    15. Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2021. "The Opioid Epidemic Was Not Caused by Economic Distress but by Factors That Could Be More Rapidly Addressed," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 276-291, May.
    16. Joshua Mask, 2022. "How Increased Labor Demand at the Start of Your Career Can Improve Long Run Outcomes," DETU Working Papers 2201, Department of Economics, Temple University.
    17. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2019. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Upjohn Working Papers 19-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    18. Chernina, Eugenia & Gimpelson, Vladimir, 2023. "Do wages grow with experience? Deciphering the Russian puzzle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 545-563.
    19. Guo, Junjie, 2022. "The persistent impact of multiple offers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Arellano-Bover, Jaime & Saltiel, Fernando, 2021. "Differences in On-the-Job Learning across Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 14473, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:104:y:2022:i:5:p:1028-1045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.