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Tests of the Chronic Shortage Hypothesis: The Case of Poland

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  • Portes, Richard
  • Quandt, Richard E
  • Yeo, Stephen
Abstract
In the analysis of econometric disequilibrium models, it is common to test the n ull hypothesis of "equilibrium" against the "disequilibrium" alternat ive. This paper tests the null hypothesis of "all-excess-demand"-tha all observations correspond to (positive) excess demand-against the alternative that permits excess demand of either sign. The auth ors use a test due to Rogers (1984), which their Monte Carlo experime nts suggest performs well in small samples, as well as a "quasi-like lihood ratio test," which is a suggestive heuristic procedure. The da ta are from the aggregate consumption goods market in Poland 1955-80, and the paper is, thus, a test of J. Kornai's assertion that "chroni c shortage" characterizes such CPEs. The results conclusively reject the "all-excess-demand" hypothesis for the Polish case, and the Rogers test promises to be of considerable practical use. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

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  • Portes, Richard & Quandt, Richard E & Yeo, Stephen, 1988. "Tests of the Chronic Shortage Hypothesis: The Case of Poland," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 288-295, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:70:y:1988:i:2:p:288-95
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Byung-Yeon, 1999. "The Income, Savings, and Monetary Overhang of Soviet Households," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 644-668, December.
    2. Mokhtari, M., 1996. "Savings under quantity constraints: what can we learn from former Soviet families?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 561-582, October.

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