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The Informal Economy and Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Gisele Ferreira-Tiryaki
Abstract
A vast literature has focused on what causes businesses to move into informality and what is the impact of an enlarging informal sector on growth. This paper shows that the size of the informal economy also affects business cycle volatility. Informal businesses are usually small in size, which not only prevents them from achieving economies of scale and from operating with the right capital/labor mix, but also restricts their access to credit markets. Because firms operating informally lack access to credit markets to neutralize the cash flow squeeze arising during recessions, they are more exposed to fluctuations in economic activity and more likely to fail. Using a Generalized Method of Moments methodology, this paper shows that countries with larger informal economies tend to undergo increased volatility in output, investment and consumption over the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Gisele Ferreira-Tiryaki, 2008. "The Informal Economy and Business Cycles," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 91-117, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:91-117
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2008.12040500
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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Granda Carvajal, 2015. "Informality and macroeconomic volatility: do credit constraints matter?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1095-1111, November.
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Elgin, Ceyhun & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yu, Shu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 16498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2010. "The Unofficial Economy and the Business Cycle: A Test for Theories," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 573-586.
    4. Nkoyo Etim Bassey & Arnim Kuhn & Hugo Storm, 2018. "Are maize marketers averse to quality loss in supplies? A case study from Ghana," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 649-658, September.
    5. Erotokritos Varelas, 2020. "Expectations about Unreported Output, Bank Lending and Double-Cycle Stability Policy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 67-81.
    6. Garcia, D & Granda, C, 2019. "Informalidad, ciclos económicos y política fiscal: una exploración de los nexos," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 18984, Alianza EFI.
    7. Catalina Granda-Carvajal, 2012. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Underground Sector: Challenging the Double Business Cycle Approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 237-256, September.
    8. Gomez, Wilman & Castrillon, Cristian & Montoya, Jaime, 2024. "Sector informal como amortiguador del ciclo económico: el papel de la aversión a la pérdida," Borradores Departamento de Economía 100, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, revised 05 Nov 2024.
    9. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2015. "Institutions, Informal Labor Markets, and Business Cycle Volatility," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2015), pages 77-112, October.
    10. Canh P. Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Dinh Su Thanh, 2020. "Economic Fluctuations And The Shadow Economy: A Global Study," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    12. Drine, Imed & Nabi, M. Sami, 2010. "Public external debt, informality and production efficiency in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 487-495, March.
    13. Salvatore Ciucci, 2024. "Tax evasion, education and shadow economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-16, August.
    14. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    15. Roberto Dell’Anno, 2010. "Institutions and human development in the Latin American informal economy," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 207-230, September.
    16. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli & Enrico Marchetti, 2016. "Search frictions and labor market dynamics in a real business cycle model with undeclared work," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 409-442, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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