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Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class

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  • Ishac Diwan
Abstract
The paper presents the outlines of a coherent, structural, long term account of the socio-economic and political evolution of the Arab republics that can explain both the persistence of autocracy until 2011, and the its eventual collapse, in a way that is empirically verifiable. I argue that the changing interests of the middle class would have to be a central aspect of a coherent story, on accounts of both distributional and modernization considerations, and that the ongoing transformation can be best understood in terms of their defection from the autocratic order to a new democratic order, which is still in formation. I then review what the evidence says in two central parts of the emerging narrative, for the case of Egypt: first, by looking directly at changes in opinion and asking whether these are consistent with the predictions of the theory. And second, by examining the corporate sector before and during the uprisings of 2011 in order to understand better the performance of “crony capitalism”, and to evaluate whether it may have affected the incentives of the middle class to defect.

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  • Ishac Diwan, 2013. "Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1350004-131, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350004-1-1350004-30
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500041
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    1. Chekir Hamouda & Diwan Ishac, 2014. "Crony Capitalism in Egypt," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 177-211, December.
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    12. Filipe R. Campante & Davin Chor, 2012. "Why Was the Arab World Poised for Revolution? Schooling, Economic Opportunities, and the Arab Spring," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 167-188, Spring.
    13. Rania Roushdy & May Gadallah, 2011. "Labor Market Adjustment during the World Financial Crisis: Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 643, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    14. Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsgård & Tarik M. Yousef, 2009. "The Logic Of Authoritarian Bargains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 93-125, March.
    15. Ishac Diwan, 2013. "Who are the Democrats? Leading Opinions in the Wake of Egypt’s 2011 Popular Uprisings," CID Working Papers 256, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Jennifer Gandhi & Adam Przeworski, 2006. "Cooperation, Cooptation, And Rebellion Under Dictatorships," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad & Hanan Nazier & Racha Ramadan & Atiyeh Vahidmanesh & Sami Zouari, 2019. "Estimating poverty and inequality in the absence of consumption data: an application to the Middle East and North Africa," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Colette Salemi, 2023. "Socioeconomic Status and the Changing Nature of School-to-Work Transitions in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(4), pages 697-723, August.
    4. Ishac Diwan & Zafiris Tzannatos & Tarik Akin, 2018. "Debunking myth: economic values in the Arab World through the prism of opinion polls," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 31-63, January.
    5. Caroline Freund & Melise Jaud, 2014. "On The Determinants Of Democratic Transitions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Ishac Diwan (ed.), UNDERSTANDING THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE ARAB UPRISINGS, chapter 5, pages 81-110, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea, 2021. "The puzzle of greenhouse gas footprints of oil abundance," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Melani Cammett & Nisreen Salti, 2016. "Popular Grievances and Perceptions of Socioeconomic Conditions in the Arab Region Prior to the Uprisings," Working Papers 1006, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2016.
    8. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Stefan Witthuhn, 2014. "Demographic Transition and Political Stability: Does Corruption Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5133, CESifo.
    9. Amr Hosny & Magda Kandil & Hamid Mohtadi, 2014. "What does Egypt's Revolution Reveal about its Economy?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 589-611, December.
    10. Wu Fengyu & Nugent Jeffrey B., 2018. "Explaining Gender Differences in Socioeconomic and Political Objectives in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada, 2020. "Distributional Bargaining and the Speed of Structural Change in the Petroleum Exporting Labor Surplus Economies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(1), pages 51-98, January.
    12. Liu, Jenny & Modrek, Sepideh & Sieverding, Maia, 2019. "The effects of political protests on youth human capital and well-being in Egypt," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    13. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Samir Makdisi, 2013. "Understanding Democratic Transitions in The Arab World," Working Papers 765, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2013.
    14. Elkhan Richard Sadik‐Zada, 2021. "Natural resources, technological progress, and economic modernization," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 381-404, February.
    15. Mohamad Al-Ississ & Ishac Diwan, 2016. "Preference for Democracy in the Arab World," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(4), pages 16-26.
    16. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Pooya Alaedini & Khayyam Azizimehr, 2017. "Middle Class in Iran: Oil Rents, Modernization, and Political Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201756, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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