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An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process

Author

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  • Matthias Kirchner
Abstract
In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimation procedure for the multivariate Hawkes point process. The timeline is cut into bins and—for each component process—the number of points in each bin is counted. As a consequence of earlier results in Kirchner [Stoch. Process. Appl., 2016, 162, 2494–2525], the distribution of the resulting ‘bin-count sequences’ can be approximated by an integer-valued autoregressive model known as the (multivariate) INAR(p) model. We represent the INAR(p) model as a standard vector-valued linear autoregressive time series with white-noise innovations (VAR(p)). We establish consistency and asymptotic normality for conditional least-squares estimation of the VAR(p), respectively, the INAR(p) model. After appropriate scaling, these time-series estimates yield estimates for the underlying multivariate Hawkes process as well as corresponding variance estimates. The estimates depend on a bin-size Δ$ \Delta $ and a support s. We discuss the impact and the choice of these parameters. All results are presented in such a way that computer implementation, e.g. in R, is straightforward. Simulation studies confirm the effectiveness of our estimation procedure. In the second part of the paper, we present a data example where the method is applied to bivariate event-streams in financial limit-order-book data. We fit a bivariate Hawkes model on the joint process of limit and market order arrivals. The analysis exhibits a remarkably asymmetric relation between the two component processes: incoming market orders excite the limit-order flow heavily whereas the market-order flow is hardly affected by incoming limit orders. For the estimated excitement functions, we observe power-law shapes, inhibitory effects for lags under 0.003 s, second periodicities and local maxima at 0.01, 0.1 and 0.5 s.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Kirchner, 2017. "An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 571-595, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:4:p:571-595
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1211312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aurélien Alfonsi & Pierre Blanc, 2015. "Extension and calibration of a Hawkes-based optimal execution model," Working Papers hal-01169686, HAL.
    2. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
    3. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2014. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: Application to high frequency order book modelling," Papers 1412.7096, arXiv.org.
    4. Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2014. "Second order statistics characterization of Hawkes processes and non-parametric estimation," Papers 1401.0903, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    5. Aur'elien Alfonsi & Pierre Blanc, 2015. "Extension and calibration of a Hawkes-based optimal execution model," Papers 1506.08740, arXiv.org.
    6. Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Papers 1809.08060, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Konark Jain & Nick Firoozye & Jonathan Kochems & Philip Treleaven, 2023. "Limit Order Book Dynamics and Order Size Modelling Using Compound Hawkes Process," Papers 2312.08927, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    3. Chen, Zezhun & Dassios, Angelos, 2022. "Cluster point processes and Poisson thinning INARMA," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113652, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Konark Jain & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy & Jonathan Kochems & Emmanuel Bacry, 2024. "No Tick-Size Too Small: A General Method for Modelling Small Tick Limit Order Books," Papers 2410.08744, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    5. Chenlong Li & Kaiyan Cui, 2024. "Multivariate Hawkes processes with spatial covariates for spatiotemporal event data analysis," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 76(4), pages 535-578, August.
    6. Benjamin Favetto, 2019. "The European intraday electricity market : a modeling based on the Hawkes process," Working Papers hal-02089289, HAL.
    7. Cao, Jingyi & Landriault, David & Li, Bin, 2020. "Optimal reinsurance-investment strategy for a dynamic contagion claim model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 206-215.
    8. Huang, Lorick & Khabou, Mahmoud, 2023. "Nonlinear Poisson autoregression and nonlinear Hawkes processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 201-241.
    9. Masato Hisakado & Kodai Hattori & Shintaro Mori, 2022. "Multi-dimensional Self-Exciting NBD Process and Default Portfolios," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 493-512, October.
    10. Yang Lu, 2021. "The predictive distributions of thinning‐based count processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(1), pages 42-67, March.
    11. Philip Protter & Qianfan Wu & Shihao Yang, 2021. "Order Book Queue Hawkes-Markovian Modeling," Papers 2107.09629, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    12. Luca Mucciante & Alessio Sancetta, 2023. "Estimation of an Order Book Dependent Hawkes Process for Large Datasets," Papers 2307.09077, arXiv.org.
    13. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Hybrid marked point processes: characterisation, existence and uniqueness," Papers 1707.06970, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    14. Weiyi Liu & Song‐Ping Zhu, 2019. "Pricing variance swaps under the Hawkes jump‐diffusion process," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 635-655, June.
    15. Timoth'ee Fabre & Ioane Muni Toke, 2024. "Neural Hawkes: Non-Parametric Estimation in High Dimension and Causality Analysis in Cryptocurrency Markets," Papers 2401.09361, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    16. Charlotte Dion & Sarah Lemler, 2020. "Nonparametric drift estimation for diffusions with jumps driven by a Hawkes process," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 489-515, October.
    17. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko Pakkanen, 2018. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," CREATES Research Papers 2018-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Konark Jain & Nick Firoozye & Jonathan Kochems & Philip Treleaven, 2024. "Limit Order Book Simulations: A Review," Papers 2402.17359, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

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