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Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia

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  • Dmitri Blueschke
  • Klaus Weyerstrass
  • Reinhard Neck
  • Boris Majcen
  • Andrej Srakar
  • Miroslav Verbič
Abstract
In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal policies as calculated using the OPTCON2 algorithm. If a negative shock to world trade of a size comparable to the Great Recession occurs, it will entail a decline in GDP and a slow recovery. In this case, optimal fiscal policies should not act in an expansionary way as the effectiveness of fiscal policy with respect to output and employment is rather limited in a small open economy like Slovenia. Instead, the goal of budget consolidation will call for a more restrictive fiscal policy, at least if the shock is temporary.

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  • Dmitri Blueschke & Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck & Boris Majcen & Andrej Srakar & Miroslav Verbič, 2019. "Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 325-348, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:31:y:2019:i:3:p:325-348
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2018.1537735
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    1. Reinhard Neck & Klaus Weyerstrass & Dmitri Blueschke & Miroslav Verbič, 2021. "Demand-side or supply-side stabilisation policies in a small euro area economy: a case study for Slovenia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 593-610, August.
    2. Reinhard Neck, 2020. "CEJOR special issue: dynamic optimization in management and economics," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(2), pages 367-369, June.
    3. Herman, Uroš & Lozej, Matija, 2021. "Cross-border bank funding and lending in a monetary union: Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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