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The impact of COVID-19 on house prices in Northern Ireland: price persistence, yet divergent?

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  • M McCord
  • D Lo
  • J McCord
  • P Davis
  • M Haran
  • P Turley
Abstract
The recent onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a pervasive impact on all economies and indeed housing markets. This research investigates the regional impact of the pandemic on the Northern Ireland housing market and provides a unique opportunity to measure short-term reactions to epidemic shocks. Applying a unique dataset, the research measures whether price switching effects are evident as a consequence of the epidemic, and to what extent. In order to achieve this, the research applies spatial lag models to account for the effect of COVID-19 on housing market pricing behaviour. The findings show that the autocorrelation of house prices increased after COVID-19, revealing price persistence driven by behavioural changes. The results further show that a price divergent effect is observable, with the detached sector ‘leading’ the price changes. This price divergence is also apparent for rural dwellings and for neighbourhoods with higher socio-economic standing making them more resistant to the outbreak of COVID-19. This is an important finding as it reveals that epidemics of this nature impact upon housing markets in a heterogeneous way in the short-term, with a clear premium observed for larger housing in healthier and wealthier areas, which may serve to reinforce housing market inequalities.

Suggested Citation

  • M McCord & D Lo & J McCord & P Davis & M Haran & P Turley, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on house prices in Northern Ireland: price persistence, yet divergent?," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 237-267, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:39:y:2022:i:3:p:237-267
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.2023610
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09599916.2021.2023610
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Lo & Kwong Wing Chau & Siu Kei Wong & Michael McCord & Martin Haran, 2022. "Factors Affecting Spatial Autocorrelation in Residential Property Prices," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, June.

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