[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjfi/v22y2016i10p887-908.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing derivatives with modeling CO emission allowance using a regime-switching jump diffusion model: with regime-switching risk premium

Author

Listed:
  • Chang-Yi Li
  • Son-Nan Chen
  • Shih-Kuei Lin
Abstract
Carbon markets trade the spot European Union Allowance (EUA), with one EUA providing the right to emit one tone of carbon dioxide (CO2). We examine the spot EUA returns in BlueNext that exhibit jumps and a volatility clustering feature. We propose a regime-switching jump diffusion model (RSJM) with a hidden Markov chain to capture not only a volatility clustering feature, but also the dynamics of the spot EUA returns that are influenced by change in the CO2 emission economic conditions. In addition, the switching jump intensities of the RSJM are shown to be affected by change in the carbon-market macroeconomic environment. We further derive the theoretical futures-option prices with a constant convenience yield under the RSJM via the generalized Esscher transform where regime-switching risk is priced with a risk premium. The empirical study shows that the derived futures-option pricing model under the RSJM with regime-switching risk is a more complete model than a jump diffusion model for pricing CO2 options.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang-Yi Li & Son-Nan Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin, 2016. "Pricing derivatives with modeling CO emission allowance using a regime-switching jump diffusion model: with regime-switching risk premium," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 887-908, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:10:p:887-908
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2015.1050526
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1351847X.2015.1050526
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1351847X.2015.1050526?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
    2. Jarrow, Robert A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1984. "Jump Risks and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 337-351, July.
    3. A. C. Christiansen & A. Arvanitakis & K. Tangen & H. Hasselknippe, 2005. "Price determinants in the EU emissions trading scheme," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 15-30, January.
    4. Juri Hinz & Alex Novikov, 2009. "On Fair Pricing of Emission-Related Derivatives," Research Paper Series 257, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Bunn, Derek W. & Fezzi, Carlo, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 9092, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    7. Derek W. Bunn & Carlo Fezzi, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Working Papers 2007.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. K. Borovkov & G. Decrouez & J. Hinz, 2010. "Jump-diffusion modeling in emission markets," Papers 1001.3728, arXiv.org.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10174 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    13. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    14. Rama Cont, 2007. "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: Empirical Facts and Agent-Based Models," Springer Books, in: Gilles Teyssière & Alan P. Kirman (ed.), Long Memory in Economics, pages 289-309, Springer.
    15. Ballotta, Laura, 2005. "A Lévy process-based framework for the fair valuation of participating life insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-196, October.
    16. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    17. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
    18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    19. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
    20. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Hilliard, Jimmy E. & Reis, Jorge, 1998. "Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-86, March.
    22. Bo, Lijun & Wang, Yongjin & Yang, Xuewei, 2010. "Markov-modulated jump-diffusions for currency option pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 461-469, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Lei Su & Wenjiao Yu & Zhongxuan Zhou, 2023. "Global Trends of Carbon Finance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Hsu, Yuan-Lin & Lin, Shih-Kuei & Hung, Ming-Chin & Huang, Tzu-Hui, 2016. "Empirical analysis of stock indices under a regime-switching model with dependent jump size risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 260-275.
    4. E. Savku & G.-W Weber, 2022. "Stochastic differential games for optimal investment problems in a Markov regime-switching jump-diffusion market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(2), pages 1171-1196, May.
    5. Yanping Liu & Bo Yan, 2024. "Spillover effects of carbon, energy, and stock markets considering economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 563-591, September.
    6. Yue Qi & Yue Wang, 2023. "Innovating and Pricing Carbon-Offset Options of Asian Styles on the Basis of Jump Diffusions and Fractal Brownian Motions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Huang, Yumeng & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "A hybrid model for carbon price forecastingusing GARCH and long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 855-880.
    2. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "On the realized volatility of the ECX CO 2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, February.
    3. Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers halshs-00405709, HAL.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4598 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo.
    6. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    7. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2022. "The relationship between carbon-intensive fuel and renewable energy stock prices under the emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Dorota Ciesielska-Maciągowska & Dawid Klimczak & Małgorzata Skrzek-Lubasińska, 2021. "Central and Eastern European CO 2 Market—Challenges of Emissions Trading for Energy Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    9. John Hua Fan & Eduardo Roca & Alexandr Akimov, 2014. "Estimation and performance evaluation of optimal hedge ratios in the carbon market of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 73-91, February.
    10. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    11. Rachid Boutti & El Amri Adil & Florence Rodhain, 2019. "Multivariate Analysis of a Time Series EU ETS: Methods and Applications in Carbon Finance," Post-Print hal-03676358, HAL.
    12. Leon Vinokur, 2009. "Disposition in the Carbon Market and Institutional Constraints," Working Papers 652, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 27-35, January.
    14. Boersen, Arieke & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "The relationship between European electricity markets and emission allowance futures prices in phase II of the EU (European Union) emission trading scheme," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 585-594.
    15. Balietti, Anca Claudia, 2016. "Trader types and volatility of emission allowance prices. Evidence from EU ETS Phase I," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 607-620.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jessica Fouilloux, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis in the EU ETS Markets for the CO2 Emission Allowances: Evidence from Phase I and Phase II," Post-Print hal-00797491, HAL.
    17. Julien Chevallier & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "The goodness-of-fit of the fuel-switching price using the mean-reverting Lévy jump process," Working Papers 2014-285, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    18. Nicolas Koch, 2014. "Dynamic linkages among carbon, energy and financial markets: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 715-729, March.
    19. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.
    20. Jia, Jun-Jun & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of verified emissions announcements on the European Union emissions trading scheme: A bilaterally modified dummy variable modelling analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 567-577.
    21. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:10:p:887-908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.