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Asymmetric returns, gradual bubbles and sudden crashes

Author

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  • Weihong Huang
  • Huanhuan Zheng
  • Wai-Mun Chia
Abstract
By applying the deterministic heterogenous agent model developed by Huang et al. [Financial crises and interacting heterogeneous agents. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, no. 6: 1105--22], this paper examines the phenomena of asymmetric returns, gradual bubbles and sudden crashes. It shows that (i) returns are asymmetric because the most positive returns initiated by fundamentalist are attenuated by the selling force of chartists, while the most negative return initiated by chartists is hardly affected by the buying force of fundamentalists; (ii) bubbles arise gradually while crashes happen suddenly as the upward price movements are counterbalanced while the downward movements are enhanced by fundamentalists. It also shows for the first time that deterministic dynamic model can simultaneously generate a wide range of stylized facts common across financial markets, including those hardly duplicated by current heterogeneous agent models, such as long-range dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng & Wai-Mun Chia, 2013. "Asymmetric returns, gradual bubbles and sudden crashes," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 420-437, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:19:y:2013:i:5:p:420-437
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2011.606993
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    Cited by:

    1. Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Gardini, Laura, 2013. "The bull and bear market model of Huang and Day: Some extensions and new results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2351-2370.
    2. Lee, Adrian D. & Li, Mengling & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2020. "Bitcoin: Speculative asset or innovative technology?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Li, Mengling & Zheng, Huanhuan & Tai Leung Chong, Terence & Zhang, Yang, 2016. "The stock–bond comovements and cross-market trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 417-438.
    4. He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2016. "Trading heterogeneity under information uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 64-80.
    5. Huanhuan Zheng & Haiqiang Chen, 2019. "Price informativeness and adaptive trading," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 1315-1342, September.
    6. Weihong Huang & Yu Zhang, 2017. "Endogenous Fundamental and Stock Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 629-653, December.
    7. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
    8. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
    9. Zhang, Mu & Zheng, Jie, 2017. "A robust reference-dependent model for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 232-258.
    10. Changtai Li & Weihong Huang & Wei-Siang Wang & Wai-Mun Chia, 2023. "Price Change and Trading Volume: Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 677-713, February.
    11. Huang, Weihong & Chen, Zhenxi, 2014. "Modeling regional linkage of financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 18-31.
    12. Wai-Mun Chia & Mengling Li & Huanhuan Zheng, 2017. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the Australian housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 872-885, February.
    13. Zhu, Jiahua & Bao, Te & Chia, Wai Mun, 2021. "Evolutionary selection of forecasting and quantity decision rules in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 363-404.
    14. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2020. "Fundamentalists heterogeneity and the role of the sentiment indicator," Department of Economics 0167, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

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