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Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

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  • Mario Cimoli
  • Jose Antonio Ocampo
  • Gabriel Porcile
  • Nunzia Saporito
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.

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  • Mario Cimoli & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Gabriel Porcile & Nunzia Saporito, 2020. "Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 740-761, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:29:y:2020:i:7:p:740-761
    DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2020.1719631
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