[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v36y2004i18p2073-2077.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The British gambler's fallacy

Author

Listed:
  • George Papachristou
Abstract
People facing choices under uncertainty, and gamblers in particular, are often subject to statistical fallacies. This paper explores the hypothesis that if lotto players were subject to the 'gambler's fallacy', predictable fluctuations in the number of jackpots would occur. Evidence, based on a Poisson regression model in which the number of winning bets is conditional on the history of draws, indicates that number selection in the UK is only marginally affected by the history of draws.

Suggested Citation

  • George Papachristou, 2004. "The British gambler's fallacy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2073-2077.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:18:p:2073-2077
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000295629
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684042000295629
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0003684042000295629?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1991. "The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play," NBER Working Papers 3769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Patrick Roger & Marie-Helene Broihanne, 2007. "Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 645-662.
    3. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    4. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    5. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1109, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1039-1059 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    4. Jullien, Bruno & Salanié, Bernard, 2005. "Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors," IDEI Working Papers 178, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Brian A. Polin & Eyal Ben Isaac & Itzhak Aharon, 2021. "Patterns in manually selected numbers in the Israeli lottery," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1039-1059, July.
    6. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1997. "Modèles de comptage semi-paramétriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 525-550, mars-juin.
    2. Jeffrey Englin & Klaus Moeltner, 2004. "The Value of Snowfall to Skiers and Boarders," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(1), pages 123-136, September.
    3. Dionne, Georges & Vanasse, Charles, 1997. "Une évaluation empirique de la nouvelle tarification de l’assurance automobile (1992) au Québec," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 47-80, mars-juin.
    4. Qian Chen & David E. Giles, 2009. "Finite-Sample Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for the Poisson Regression Model With Random Covariates," Econometrics Working Papers 0907, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    5. Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Windmeijer, Frank, 2002. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 113-131, May.
    6. Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert & Gagnon, Francois & Vanasse, Charles, 1997. "Debt, moral hazard and airline safety An empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 379-402, August.
    7. Cuicui Lu & Weining Wang & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2018. "Using generalized estimating equations to estimate nonlinear models with spatial data," Papers 1810.05855, arXiv.org.
    8. Baptista, Rui & Swann, Peter, 1998. "Do firms in clusters innovate more?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 525-540, September.
    9. Georges Dionne & Olfa Ghali, 2005. "The (1992) Bonus‐Malus System in Tunisia: An Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 609-633, December.
    10. Michael R. Baye & J. Rupert J. Gatti & Paul Kattuman & John Morgan, 2009. "Clicks, Discontinuities, and Firm Demand Online," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 935-975, December.
    11. William Greene, 2007. "Correlation in Bivariate Poisson Regression Model," Working Papers 07-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Konstantinos Drakos & Andreas Gofas, 2006. "In Search Of The Average Transnational Terrorist Attack Venue," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 73-93.
    13. Bauer, Thomas K. & Million, Andreas & Rotte, Ralph & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Immigration Labor and Workplace Safety," IZA Discussion Papers 16, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Frank T. Rothaermel & Andrew M. Hess, 2007. "Building Dynamic Capabilities: Innovation Driven by Individual-, Firm-, and Network-Level Effects," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(6), pages 898-921, December.
    15. Rothaermel, Frank T. & Thursby, Marie, 2007. "The nanotech versus the biotech revolution: Sources of productivity in incumbent firm research," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 832-849, July.
    16. Ronald S Wall & Martijn J Burger & G A (Bert) van der Knaap, 2011. "The Geography of Global Corporate Networks: The Poor, the Rich, and the Happy Few Countries," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(4), pages 904-927, April.
    17. Clément Bosquet & Hervé Boulhol, 2014. "Applying the GLM Variance Assumption to Overcome the Scale-Dependence of the Negative Binomial QGPML Estimator," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 772-784, October.
    18. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    19. Dionne, G. & Laberge-Nadeau, C. & Desjardins, D. & Messier, S. & Maag, U., 1998. "Analysis of the Economic Impact of Medical and Optometric Driving Standards on Costs Incured by Trucking Firms and on the Social Costs of Traffic Accidents," Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal- 98-06, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal-Chaire de gestion des risques..
    20. Edgar Ventura Neyra & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2015. "Explaining the Determinants of the Frequency of Exchange Rate Interventions in Peru Using Count Models," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(3), pages 261-292.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:18:p:2073-2077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.