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On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks

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  • Alfred A. Haug
Abstract
The role of structural breaks in long spans of ex-post real interest rates for 10 industrialized countries is studied. First, the persistence of the real interest is assessed with newly proposed low-frequency tests of Müller and Watson (2008). Second, the test of Leybourne et al. (2007) for a change in persistence of a time series is applied to the real interest rate. The results show that real interest rates over the full sample period do not fit a covariance-stationary or unit-root model, nor a fractionally integrated, near-unit-root or local-level model. Instead, the persistence of real rates changes over time and there are periods when the real rate is covariance-stationary and other periods when it follows a unit-root process.

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  • Alfred A. Haug, 2014. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1058-1066, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:10:p:1058-1066
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.864043
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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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