[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v26y2008i11p1171-1180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The option value of government guarantees in infrastructure projects

Author

Listed:
  • Luiz Eduardo Brandao
  • Eduardo Saraiva
Abstract
The participation of private capital in public infrastructure investment projects has been sought by many governments who perceive this as a way to overcome budgetary constraints and foster economic growth. For some types of projects, this investment may require government participation in the form of project guarantees in order to reduce the risk to the private investor, and as a consequence, the government assumes a contingent liability which may have significant future budgetary impacts. We present a minimum traffic guarantee (MTG) real options model that differs from most of the literature in the field by using market data to determine stochastic project parameters. This model can be used to assess the value of these guarantees, allows the government to analyse the cost-benefit of each level of support, and proposes an alternative to limit the exposure of the government while still maintaining the benefits to the private investor. We apply this model to the projected 1000 mile long BR-163 toll road that will link the Brazilian Midwest to the Amazon River. We conclude that the use of public-private partnerships (PPP) with guarantees and caps on total government outlays can be modelled effectively using option pricing methods and can be a solution to attract private investment to high risk public infrastructure projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Eduardo Brandao & Eduardo Saraiva, 2008. "The option value of government guarantees in infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1171-1180.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:26:y:2008:i:11:p:1171-1180
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190802428051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446190802428051
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01446190802428051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Irwin, 2003. "Public Money for Private Infrastructure : Deciding When to Offer Guarantees, Output-based Subsidies, and Other Fiscal Support," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15117.
    2. Pedro Miguel Pimentel & Jos� Azevedo-Pereira & Gualter Couto, 2012. "High-speed rail transport valuation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-183, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kangsoo Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2019. "Financing for a Sustainable PPP Development: Valuation of the Contractual Rights under Exercise Conditions for an Urban Railway PPP Project in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Kim, Amy M. & Li, Huanan, 2020. "Incorporating the impacts of climate change in transportation infrastructure decision models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 271-287.
    3. Oliveira, A. & Couto, G. & Pimentel, P., 2021. "Uncertainty and flexibility in infrastructure investments: Application of real options analysis to the Ponta Delgada airport expansion," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Michel Noel & W. Jan Brzeski, 2005. "Mobilizing Private Finance for Local Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia : An Alternative Public Private Partnership Framework," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7333.
    5. Buso, Marco & Moretto, Michele & Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2021. "Excess returns in Public-Private Partnerships: Do governments pay too much?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Dražen Vrhovski & Bruna Földing & Sebastijan Prebanić, 2014. "Government subsidies efficiency analysis in the tourism sector in Croatia," Tourism and Hospitality Industry section3-2, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
    7. Ozorio, Luiz de Magalhães & Bastian-Pinto, Carlos de Lamare & Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda & Brandão, Luiz Eduardo Teixeira, 2013. "Investment decision in integrated steel plants under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-64.
    8. Mario, Cuevas, 2007. "A Practical Guide to the Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Non-Financial Private Sector," MPRA Paper 1375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Pimentel, Rita, 2021. "Quasi-analytical solution of an investment problem with decreasing investment cost due to technological innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2015. "A model for irreversible investment with construction and revenue uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 250-266.
    11. André De Palma & Luc E. Leruth & Guillaume Prunier, 2012. "Towards a Principal-Agent Based Typology of Risks in Public-Private Partnerships," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 57-73.
    12. Lindsey, Robin & de Palma, André, 2014. "Cost recovery from congestion tolls with long-run uncertainty," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 119-132.
    13. Bogdan Rębiasz & Bartłomiej Gaweł & Iwona Skalna, 2017. "Valuing managerial flexibility. An application of real-option theory to steel industry investments," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 27(2), pages 91-111.
    14. Leandro Medina, 2018. "Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 35(1), pages 196-222, March.
    15. Luc Leruth, 2012. "Public-Private Cooperation in Infrastructure Development: A Principal-Agent Story of Contingent Liabilities, Fiscal Risks, and Other (Un)pleasant Surprises," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 223-237, June.
    16. Antonio Estache & Liam Wren-Lewis, 2009. "Toward a Theory of Regulation for Developing Countries: Following Jean-Jacques Laffont's Lead," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 729-770, September.
    17. Nicola Chiara & Michael Garvin, 2008. "Variance models for project financial risk analysis with applications to greenfield BOT highway projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 925-939.
    18. Carlos Contreras & Julio Angulo, 2017. "Valuing Governmental Support in Road PPPs," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 223(4), pages 37-66, December.
    19. Cledan Mandri-Perrott & Iain Menzies, 2010. "Private Sector Participation in Light Rail-Light Metro Transit Initiatives," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2416.
    20. Pimentel, Pedro & Couto, Gualter & Tavares, André & Oliveira, André, 2021. "The impacts of real options analysis on EU co-financing policy: the case of Ponta Delgada Port in the Azores," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:26:y:2008:i:11:p:1171-1180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.