Content
2024, Issue 75
- 5-10 Large Language Models as Benchmarks in Forecasting Practice
by Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva - 11-16 LLMs, Data Leakage, Bullshit, and Botshit
by Stephan Kolassa - 18-20 Commentary: Can LLMs Provide Good Forecasts?
by Christoph Bergmeir - 21-23 Reply to the Commentaries: A Plea for the Ranked Probability Score
by Malte Tichy - 24-31 Unethical Behavior in Forecast Accuracy Evaluation
by Kevin F. Forbes - 32-37 Limiting Extreme Behavior in Forecasting Competitions
by Matthew J. Schneider & Jethro Browell & Rufus Rankin - 38-43 Linear Regression with a Time Series View Part 4: Logistic Regression for Binary Outcomes
by Ken Fordyce - 44-46 Review: Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus? by Daniel Raimi, Yuqi Zhu, Richard G. Newell, and Brian C. Prest
by Ira Sohn - 47-48 The Brier Score and Its Decomposition
by Stephan Kolassa
2024, Issue 74
- 5-6 Alliance or Apathy? Forecasting's Role in Achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals
by Bahman Rostami-Tabar & Michael Gilliland - 7-11 Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating
by Malte Tichy - 12-13 Commentary: A Good Correction for Forecastability
by Stefan de Kok - 14-15 Commentary: A Major Milestone for Forecast Accuracy Summarization
by Tim Januschowski - 16-17 Commentary: The Scaling Trap in Retail Forecasting
by Zabiulla Mohammed - 18-19 How Do I Set Forecast Accuracy Expectations?
by Patrick Bower - 20-22 Information that Can Damage Your Demand Forecasts
by Paul Goodwin - 24-29 Forecast Desirability: Is Better the Enemy of Good?
by Johann Robette - 30-35 Point Forecast Evaluation: State of the Art
by Ivan Svetunkov - 36-41 Linear Regression with a Time Series View Part 3: Qualitative Predictor Variables
by Ken Fordyce - 42-44 Decision Intelligence: A Critical Reflection
by Roger Moser - 45-46 Spotlight: Interview with Marina Sologubova
by Foresight Staff - 47-48 A Planner-centric Approach to Judgmental Forecasting
by Niels van Hove
2024, Issue 73
- 5-12 Failing to Pay Attention to Error: Our Greatest Error
by Steve Morlidge - 13-23 A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added
by Conor Doherty - 24-25 Commentary: FVA: The Gold Standard for Collaborative Forecasting
by Jeff Baker - 26-27 Commentary: Using FVA the Right Way
by Stefan de Kok - 28-29 Commentary: Apologia pro Forecast Value Added
by Igor Gusakov - 30-30 Commentary: FVA Remains Relevant and Valuable
by Marina Sologubova - 31-32 Commentary: How to Properly Leverage FVA
by Nicolas Vandeput - 33-38 LLMs and Foundational Models: Not (Yet) as Good as Hoped
by Christoph Bergmeir - 39-45 Fordyce discusses multiple linear regression in Part 2 of his tutorial series "Linear Regression with a Time Series View." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024
by Ken Fordyce - 48-53 The Accuracy of Prediction Markets
by Thomas Wolfram - 54-57 Book Review: Judgment in Predictive Analytics, edited by Matthias Seifert
by Robert Fildes - 58-60 Book Review: The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, AI, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk by Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason
by Ira Sohn - 61-62 Spotlight: Interview with Eric Stellwagen
by Foresight Staff - 63-64 Interactions in Forecasting
by Stephan Kolassa
2024, Issue 72
- 1-68 Spotlight: Interview with Ruben Crevits
by Foresight Staff - 5-7 J. Scott Armstrong (1937 - 2023): Iconoclast and Champion of Science for Practical Purposes
by Kesten C. Green - 8-8 Lessons from a Mentor and Friend
by Andreas Graefe - 9-9 Scott Armstrong's Scientific Legacy
by Arch Woodside - 10-14 The Forecaster's Evaluation Dilemma
by Malte Tichy - 15-20 Combining Probability Predictions
by Ville A. Satop?? - 21-28 Estimating Predictive Probability of Success
by Shaun Comfort - 29-32 Accuracy vs. Runtime with Multiple Seasonalities
by Stephan Kolassa - 35-39 Linear Regression with a Time Series View, Part 1: Simple Linear Regression
by Ken Fordyce - 40-46 How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change?
by Igor Grossmann & Christoph Bergmeir & Peter Slattery - 47-51 A Case for a More Decision-centric IBP
by Niels van Hove - 52-57 How Decision Intelligence Integrates Forecasting, AI, and Data into Complex Decisions
by Lorien Pratt & David Roberts & Nadine Malcolm & Brian Fisher & Katie Barnhill & Daniela Jones & Michael Kudenov - 58-59 Book Review: Sales & Operations Planning -An Executive Update by Robert A. Stahl
by Patrick Bower - 60-63 Book Review: Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence, by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb
by Ira Sohn - 64-65 Book Review: Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals, by Stephan Kolassa, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, and Enno Siemsen
by Simon Spavound - 66-67 Spotlight: Interview with Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi
by Foresight Staff - 69-71 In Pursuit of Consumption-Based Forecasting
by Charles Chase & Kenneth B. Kahn
2023, Issue 71
- 10-17 20 Years of FVA: A Critical Retrospective
by Michael Gilliland - 18-24 Enhancements to the Forecast Value Added Framework
by Jeff Baker - 25-27 A Critical Review of Forecast Value Added
by Stefan de Kok - 28-28 Two Process Changes Based on FVA Findings
by Fazlur Rahman - 29-30 The Potential of FVA for Driving Process Improvement
by Marina Sologubova - 31-37 Judgmental Adjustments in Demand Planning: Their Motivation and Success
by Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin & Shari De Baets - 40-41 The Effective Use of External Signals and Human Inputs
by Anne-Flore Elard - 42-47 The Need for Risk Management in Forecasting Software
by Johann Robette - 48-49 Entering the Golden Age of Mixed Frequency Forecasting
by Gareth Thomas - 50-54 A Glimpse into the Future of Forecasting Software
by Spiros Potamitis & Michele Trovero & Joe Katz - 55-61 How Will Generative AI Influence Forecasting Software?
by Michele Trovero & Spiros Potamitis - 62-65 What Do We Learn from Forecasting Software Surveys?
by Oliver Schaer & Ivan Svetunkov & Robert Fildes - 66-68 Book Review- Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson
by Robert Fildes - 69-70 The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge by J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green
by George Karamatzanis & Kostas Nikolopoulos - 71-72 Spotlight: Shari De Baets
by Foresight Interviewer - 73-74 Spotlight: Joe McConnell
by Foresight Interviewer - 75-76 Sustainability in Forecasting
by Stephan Kolassa - 77-79 Forecasts for Infrastructure -A Crisis Confronting the Economy
by Ira Sohn
2023, Issue 70
- 5-12 Common Pitfalls and Better Practices in Forecast Evaluation for Data Scientists
by Christoph Bergmeir - 13-14 Commentary: A Practitioner's View on the Common Pitfalls
by Zeynep Erkin Baz - 15-16 Commentary: Idealism - Make Way for Realism
by Shari De Baets - 17-23 Cross-Learning with Short Seasonal Time Series
by Huijing Chen & John Boylan & Ivan Svetunkov - 24-25 Commentary: PICS, or, Why Stop at PIC?
by Stefan de Kok - 26-27 Commentary: Exponential Smoothing in the Spotlight Again
by Malvina Marchese - 28-30 The Limitations of Forecasts and Plans on Decision Making
by Niels van Hove - 31-37 The Organizational Politics of Forecasting Revisited: Collaborative Budget Forecasting Meets the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Elaine Deschamps - 40-42 Book Review of Change & Chance Embraced and Four P's in a Pod, by Hans Levenbach
by Sara Barradas - 43-44 Book Review of Demand Forecasting Best Practices by Nicolas Vandeput
by Stephan Kolassa - 45-48 Book Review of Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends that Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them, by Nouriel Roubini
by Ira Sohn - 49-52 The 10 Lies Told in Consensus Meetings
by Patrick Bower & Chip Gretok - 53-55 What Is Wrong with Demand Planning Software?
by Igor Gusakov - 56-57 Spotlight: Mark Chockalingam
by Foresight Staff - 58-59 Spotlight: Malvina Marchese
by Foresight Staff - 60-61 Forecasting: A Critical Enabler of the Circular Economy
by Thanos Goltsos & Aris Syntetos - 62-63 All Hail the Flatline Forecast!
by Stephan Kolassa - 64-65 The Technological Limits to Forecasting
by Malte Tichy - 66-67 Minitutorial: Forecasting New Product Adoption Using S-Curves
by Lawrence Vanston
2023, Issue 69
- 5-12 Time to Retire the MAPE
by Malte Tichy - 13-16 Commentary: How We Deal with Zero Actuals Has a Huge Impact on the MAPE and Optimal Forecasts
by Stephan Kolassa - 17-19 Commentary: MAPE, What Else?
by Flavio von Rickenbach - 20-22 Should We Always Use Forecasts when Facing the Future?
by Paul Goodwin - 23-24 Commentary: To Forecast or Not to Forecast?
by Fotios Petropoulos - 25-27 Commentary: When to Be Careful about Forecasting
by Stephan Kolassa - 28-29 There Is More Uncertainty than Just Demand
by Argiris Mokios - 30-31 Supply Chain Forecasting - Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?
by Nico Sprotti - 32-33 You Think You're Measuring Accuracy?
by Stefan De Kok - 34-35 Be Kind
by Patrick Bower - 39-42 Policy Predictability: The Case of Forward Guidance by Central Banks
by Marcin Klucznik & Jakub Rybacki - 43-47 Long-term Projections of Water Supply and Demand
by Hua Xie & Claudia Ringler - 49-55 Reducing Forecast Instability with Global Deep Learning Models
by Jente Van Belle & Ruben Crevits & Wouter Verbeke - 56-57 Spotlight: Elaine Deschamps
by Foresight Staff - 58-58 Spotlight: Niles Perera
by Foresight Staff - 59-60 How to Increase Forecast Accuracy
by Stephan Kolassa - 61-62 The Impact of Large Language Models like ChatGPT on Forecasting
by Spyros Makridakis & Fotios Petropoulos & Yanfei Kang - 64-65 Comparing Artificial Intelligence and Nonlinear Regression Models: The Issue of Test Design
by Gordon Reikard - 66-66 How Overfitting Destroys Forecast Quality
by Steve Morlidge - 67-67 RAE Measures Value Added and Allows for Forecastability
by Steve Morlidge
2023, Issue 68
- 12-19 Does Improved Forecast Accuracy Translate to Business Value?
by Johann Robette - 20-24 Using Simulation to Determine When Forecast Accuracy Matters
by Stephan Kolassa - 25-30 Increased Bullwhip in Retail: A Side Effect of Improving Forecast Accuracy with More Data?
by Arnoud P. Wellens & Robert N. Boute & Maximiliano Udenio - 31-35 Measuring the Cost of Forecast Error
by Steve Morlidge - 36-39 Why Does Forecast Accuracy Matter?
by John Boylan & Aris Syntetos - 40-44 Better Forecasts or More Appropriate Stock Control Policies?
by Evangelos Theodorou & Evangelos Spilioti - 45-46 Accuracy and Usefulness in Applied Forecasting
by Sinisa Vukovic - 50-51 Why Do We Talk about Forecast Accuracy Measures (So Much)?
by Patrick Bower - 52-56 A New Approach to Business Planning during Crises
by Niels van Hove - 57-59 Commentary on "A New Approach to Business Planning during Crises"
by Vaishal Patel & George Monokroussos & Jason Chen - 60-60 Spotlight: Oyebimpe Adeniji
by Foresight Interviewer - 61-61 Spotlight: Anne-Flore Elard
by Foresight Interviewer - 62-64 Business Forecasting: Issues, Current State, and Future Direction
by Simon Clarke - 65-65 Minitutorial: Forecast Value Added
by Michael Gilliland - 66-67 Minitutorial: The Pinball Loss for Quantile Forecasts
by Stephan Kolassa
2022, Issue 67
- 8-15 To Share or Not to Share? The Future of Collaborative Forecasting
by Pierre Pinson - 16-17 Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Asymmetry of Data Ownership
by Niels van Hove - 18-19 Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Legal Ramifications and FVA of Data Sharing
by Robert Stevens - 20-21 Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Federated Data and Learning in the Supply Chain
by Ram Ganeshan - 22-22 Commentary on "To Share or Not to Share": Third-Party Data Providers
by Sujit Singh - 23-25 Histories of the Future by Jonathon P. Karelse
by Mark Little - 26-26 Atlas of Forecasts by Katy B?rner
by Lawrence Vanston - 27-27 Review of Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting
by Nicolas Vandeput - 32-38 Toward a One-Number Forecast: Cross-Temporal Hierarchies
by Nikolaos Kourentzes - 39-39 Commentary on "Toward a One-Number Forecast": The Software Gap
by Simon Clarke - 40-40 Reply to Simon Clarke Commentary
by Nikolaos Kourentzes - 41-47 The IIF Forecasting Impact Podcast
by Shari De Baets & Mahdi Abolghasemi & Sarah Van Der Auweraer & Anna Sroginis & Michael Chojnowski
2022, Issue 66
- 5-10 Konfessions of a Kibitzer
by Roy Batchelor - 11-12 Batchelor Party
by Mike Gilliland & Len Tashman - 13-20 The Demand Forecasting Project at Target: Improving Collaboration and Adoption
by Mahdi R. Yousefi & Stacey Faulkenberg Larsen & Subramanian Iyer - 21-25 Making Forecasts More Trustworthy
by Simon Spavound & Nikolaos Kourentzes - 26-29 Commentary on "Making Forecasts More Trustworthy"
by Paul Goodwin & M. Sinan Gonul & Dilek Onkal - 34-37 Subsampling Seasonal Series - A Simple Approach to Forecasting Complex Patterns
by Paul Goodwin - 38-44 Long-Term Projections of Food Production and Demand
by Keith Wiebe & Timothy Sulser & Nicola Cenacchi - 45-48 A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words: Atlas of Forecasts: Modeling and Mapping Desirable Futures by Katy B?rner
by Ira Sohn (reviewer)
2022, Issue 65
- 5-12 Representativeness: A New Criterion for Selecting Forecasts
by Fotios Petropoulos & Enno Siemsen - 13-16 Commentary on Representativeness
by Nigel Harvey & Shari De Baets - 17-22 An Extension of Possibility Distributions in Fuzzy Forecasting
by Stefan de Kok - 23-26 STR: A Flexible New Decomposition Method for Analyzing and Forecasting Complex Time Series
by Paul Goodwin - 27-29 More Thoughts on STR
by Stephan Kolassa - 34-38 One-Number Forecasting: A Solution for Silo Behavior?
by Simon Clarke - 39-40 Commentary: One-Number Forecast: How Will It Be Used?
by Richard Herrin - 41-47 The UFO Project (Usage of Forecasting in Organizations): Final Survey Results
by Jim Hoover & Len Tashman
2022, Issue 64
- 4-8 Advances in Intermittent-Demand Forecasting
by John Boylan & Aris Syntetos - 9-11 Intermittent Demand Forecasting: Context, Methods and Applications (2021) by John Boylan and Aris Syntetos
by Jim Hoover - 12-15 Commentary on Intermittent Demand Forecasting: Let's Look Next at Dynamics!
by Stephan Kolassa - 16-17 Reply to Stephan Kolassa Commentary
by John Boylan & Aris Syntetos - 18-18 Forecasters in the Field
by Foresight Editor Len Tashman - 19-25 Into the (Largely) Unknown, Part 2: Uses of Fuzzy Forecasting
by Steve Morlidge & Paul Goodwin - 30-44 Decision Trees for Time-Series Forecasting
by Evangelos Spiliotis - 45-48 Decision Trees in Automatic Forecasting Algorithms: The Implementation in Forecast Pro
by Sarah Darin
2021, Issue 63
- 7-11 Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
by Stephan Kolassa & Len Tashman - 12-13 Can Biases and Heuristics Be Unconscious?
by Christopher Plummer - 14-20 Into the (Largely) Unknown: A Simple Way to Handle Uncertainty
by Steve Morlidge & Paul Goodwin - 21-24 Can We Reconcile Narrativist and Probabilistic Modes of Thinking?
by Philip E. Tetlock & J. Peter Scoblic - 29-35 The Impact of COVID-19 on the Economy and Strategic Environment of the United States: A Review of Two New Studies
by Ira Sohn - 36-45 Beyond Error Measures to the Utility and Cost of the Forecasts
by Elizabeth Yardley & Fotios Petropoulos - 46-52 Integrated Business Planning: A New Narrative for an Old Process
by Niels van Hove & Hein Regeer
2021, Issue 62
- 4-7 Resurrecting Retail: The Future of Business in a Post-Pandemic World by Doug Stephens
by Stephan Kolassa - 8-13 Forecasting Demand during COVID-The Case of Wayfair
by Alexei Alexandrov & Philip Brooks & I-Chen Lee & George Monokroussos - 14-21 Strategy in Uncertain Times: Lenses to Approach Decision Making, Forecasting, and Planning
by Chris Turner - 27-32 A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future
by J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock - 33-35 Scenarios and Probabilities: Incompatible or Complementary?
by Paul Goodwin - 36-39 Risk vs. Uncertainty
by Steve Morlidge - 40-42 Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting
by Roy Batchelor - 43-46 Probabilistic Scenarios in Demand and Supply Planning
by Stefan De Kok - 47-49 Uncertainty Is the Human Condition
by Mike Tremblay - 50-51 Near-Term Questions for Long-Term Uncertainties
by Robert Fildes
2021, Issue 61
- 5-14 Mitigating Unconscious Bias in Forecasting
by Jonathon Karelse - 15-17 Commentary: The Case for Parsimonious Intervention
by Paul Goodwin - 18-19 Commentary: Cross-Disciplinary Approaches to Supply-Chain Issues
by Jeff Baker - 20-23 The Great Toilet Paper Buy: Lessons for the Supply Chain
by Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan - 28-35 Combining Humans and Machines in an Emerging Form of Enterprise: the Humachine
by Nada Sanders & John Wood - 36-38 Commentary: AI Is Here to Automate the Knowledge Worker
by Niels van Hove - 39-40 Commentary: ML Must Be Used with Care
by David Orrell - 41-44 Commentary: A Brief Historical Perspective on Integrating New Technology
by Ken Fordyce - 45-48 The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics by Tim Harford
by Ira Sohn
2021, Issue 60
- 5-7 How to Harness the Wisdom of Crowds
by Paul Goodwin - 8-15 Maximizing Forecast Value Added through Machine Learning and "Nudges"
by Jeff Baker - 16-17 Commentary: Managing FVA
by Robert Fildes - 18-19 Commentary: Another Role for ML in Forecasting
by Michael Gilliland - 20-24 A Peek at the Next Century: Population Projections to 2100 and Their Economic and Geopolitical Consequences
by Ira Sohn - 28-32 Can We Profit from Trading on Predictions of High-Low Stock Prices?
by Clive Jones - 33-37 The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting
by Spyros Makridakis & Evangelos Spiliotis - 38-38 Commentary: We'll Still Need Expertise
by Stephan Kolassa - 39-39 Commentary: Will the Value of Forecasting Knowledge and Experience Diminish?
by Simon Clarke - 40-41 Commentary: The M5 Competition: A Critical Appraisal
by Tim Januschowski & Jan Gasthaus & Yuyang Wang - 42-42 Commentary: The M5 and the Future Role of Expertise
by Michael Gilliland - 43-43 Commentary: Academicians and Practitioners Will Thrive
by Lawrence Vanston