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China's Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Light of the Earlier Japanese Experience

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  • McKinnon, Ronald
Abstract
For creditor countries on the periphery of the dollar standard such as China with current account surpluses, foreign mercantile pressure to appreciate their currencies and become more flexible is misplaced. Just the expectation of variable exchange appreciation seriously disrupts the natural tendency for wage growth to balance productivity growth and thus worsens the (incipient) deflation that China now faces. It could create a zero-interest liquidity trap in financial markets that leaves the central bank helpless to combat future deflation arising out of actual currency appreciation, as with the earlier experience of Japan. Exchange rate appreciation, or the threat of it, causes macroeconomic distress without having any predictable effect on the trade surpluses of creditor economies.

Suggested Citation

  • McKinnon, Ronald, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Light of the Earlier Japanese Experience," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-035, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4619
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, April.
    2. Zhang, Xiaobo & Tan, Kong-Yam, 2004. "Blunt to sharpened razor: incremental reform and distortions in the product and capital markets in China," DSGD discussion papers 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    2. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi–US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
    3. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 66-88, February.
    4. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    5. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2008. "Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 0803, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    6. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.
    7. Huayu Sun, 2009. "Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 23-38, May.
    8. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-491, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    9. Yuanquan Chen, 2008. "Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 63-82, September.
    10. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    11. Ying Wu, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Prices under Processing Trade: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(3), pages 345-357, September.
    12. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; current account; China; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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