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Forecast based pricing of weather derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • López-Cabrera, Brenda
  • Ritter, Matthias
Abstract
Forecasting based pricing of Weather Derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data. Forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR) are often not incorporated. We adopt a risk neutral approach (for each location) that allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of WD pricing. We study weather Risk Premiums (RPs) implied from either the information MPR gain or the meteorological forecasts. The size of RPs is interesting for investors and issuers of weather contracts to take advantages of geographic diversification, hedging effects and price determinations. By conducting an empirical analysis to London and Rome WD data traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), we find out that either incorporating the MPR or the forecast outperforms the standard pricing techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Ritter, Matthias, 2012. "Forecast based pricing of weather derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-027, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2012-027
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fred Espen Benth & Jurate Saltyte-Benth, 2005. "Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-85.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
    3. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Wimmer, Maximilian, 2010. "The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1360-1370, June.
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    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    7. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2012. "The Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 59-95, February.
    8. Melanie Cao & Jason Wei, 2004. "Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1065-1089, November.
    9. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    10. Dorje Brody & Joanna Syroka & Mihail Zervos, 2002. "Dynamical pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-198.
    11. Benth, Fred & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & López Cabrera, Brenda, 2009. "Pricing of Asian temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-046, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308, March.
    13. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    14. Ritter, Matthias & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-043, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    Cited by:

    1. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    2. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-005, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    4. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2016. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-126.
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
    7. G. Geoffrey Booth & Sanders S. Chang, 2017. "Domestic exchange rate determination in Renaissance Florence," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(3), pages 405-445, September.
    8. Peng Li, 2021. "The Valuation of Weather Derivatives Using One Sided Crank–Nicolson Schemes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 825-847, October.
    9. Cobuloglu, Halil I. & Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra, 2015. "Food vs. biofuel: An optimization approach to the spatio-temporal analysis of land-use competition and environmental impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 418-434.
    10. Sinha, Pankaj & Nagarnaik, Ankit & Raj, Kislay & Suman, Vineeta, 2016. "Forecasting United States Presidential election 2016 using multiple regression models," MPRA Paper 74641, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2016.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    weather derivatives; seasonal variation; temperature; risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N53 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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