[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2011-055.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pricing Chinese rain: A multisite mulit-period equilibrium pricing model for rainfall derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Osipenko, Maria
Abstract
Many industries are exposed to weather risk which they can transfer on financial markets via weather derivatives. Equilibrium models based on partial market clearing became a useful tool for pricing such kind of financial instruments. In a multi-period equilibrium pricing model agents rebalance their portfolio of weather bonds and a risk free asset in each period such that they maximize the expected utility of their incomes constituted by possibly weather dependent profits and payoffs of portfolio positions. We extend the model to a multisite version and apply it to pricing rainfall derivatives for Chinese provinces. By simulating realistic market conditions with two agent types, farmers with profits highly exposed to weather risk and a financial investor diversifying her financial portfolio, we obtain equilibrium prices for weather derivatives on cumulative monthly rainfall. Dynamic portfolio optimization under market clearing and utility indifference of these representative agents determines equilibrium quantity and price for rainfall derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Osipenko, Maria, 2011. "Pricing Chinese rain: A multisite mulit-period equilibrium pricing model for rainfall derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-055, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2011-055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/56693/1/66730407X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Lu & Li, Feng & Zhu, Lixing & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2010. "Mean volatility regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-003, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    2. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Interest Rate Projections: Evidence from New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 323-329, September.
    3. Yao, Fang, 2011. "Monetary policy, trend inflation and inflation Persistence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-008, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Biele, Guido & Rieskamp, Jörg & Krugel, Lea K. & Heekeren, Hauke R., 2011. "The neural basis of following advice," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-038, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit & Brennan, Simon & Willison, Matthew, 2013. "A network model of financial system resilience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 219-235.
    6. Raffaele Fiocco & Mario Gilli, 2012. "Bargaining and Collusion in a Regulatory Model," Chapters, in: Joseph E. Harrington Jr & Yannis Katsoulacos (ed.), Recent Advances in the Analysis of Competition Policy and Regulation, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Beresford, Alastair R. & Kübler, Dorothea & Preibusch, Sören, 2012. "Unwillingness to pay for privacy: A field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 25-27.
    8. Park, Soyoung Q & Kahnt, Thorsten & Rieskamp, Jörg & Heekeren, Hauke R., 2011. "Neurobiology of value integration: When value impacts valuation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-037, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    9. Klinke, Sigbert, 2011. "Developing web-based tools for the teaching of statistics: Our wikis and the German Wikipedia," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-030, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2013. "Oracally Efficient Two-Step Estimation of Generalized Additive Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(502), pages 619-631, June.
    11. Wolfgang Karl Hardle and Maria Osipenko, 2012. "Spatial Risk Premium on Weather Derivatives and Hedging Weather Exposure in Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Hofmann, Dirk & Qari, Salmai, 2011. "The law of attraction bilateral search and horizontal heterogeneity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-017, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    13. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Marsili, Matteo, 2012. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1088-1100.
    14. Akdeniz Duran, Esra & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Osipenko, Maria, 2012. "Difference based ridge and Liu type estimators in semiparametric regression models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 164-175.
    15. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    16. Stahlschmidt, Stephan & Tausendteufel, Helmut & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2011. "Bayesian Networks and sex-related homicides," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    17. Dietmar Fehr & Julia Schmid, 2018. "Exclusion in all‐pay auctions: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 326-339, June.
    18. Belitz, Heike & Clemens, Marius & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Schmidt-Ehmcke, Jens & Werwatz, Axel & Zloczysti, Petra, 2011. "An indicator for national systems of innovation: Methodology and application to 17 industrialized countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-036, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    19. Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2011. "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 273-335.
    20. Fiocco, Raffaele & Scarpa, Carlo, 2011. "The regulation of interdependent markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-046, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    21. Mechtenberg, Lydia & Münster, Johannes, 2012. "A strategic mediator who is biased in the same direction as the expert can improve information transmission," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 490-492.
    22. Liu, Xiaoliang & Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-018, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    23. Santiago Moreno-Bromberg & Luca Taschini, 2011. "Pollution permits, Strategic Trading and Dynamic Technology Adoption," Papers 1103.2914, arXiv.org.
    24. Zheng, Shuzhuan & Yang, Lijian & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2010. "A confidence corridor for sparse longitudinal data curves," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-002, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    25. Naujokat, Felix & Horst, Ulrich, 2011. "When to cross the spread: Curve following with singular control," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-053, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    26. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    27. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Ostap Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2016. "Localizing Temperature Risk," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1491-1508, October.
    28. Duran, Esra Akdeniz & Guo, Mengmeng & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2010. "A confidence corridor for expectile functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-004, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    29. Reiß, Markus & Rozenholc, Yves & Cuenod, Charles A., 2011. "Pointwise adaptive estimation for quantile regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-029, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    30. Bibinger, Markus, 2011. "Asymptotics of asynchronicity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-033, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    31. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Spokoiny, Vladimir & Wang, Weining, 2010. "Local quantile regression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-005, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    32. Diels, Jana Luisa & Wiebach, Nicole, 2011. "Customer reactions in Out-of-Stock situations: Do promotion-induced phantom positions alleviate the similarity substitution hypothsis?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    33. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2011. "Sticky information and determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    34. Fehr, Dietmar & Schmid, Julia, 2011. "Exclusion in the all-pay auction: An experimental investigation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-009, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    35. Bunk, Patrick, 2011. "News-driven business cycles in SVARs," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    36. Scheffel, Juliane, 2011. "How do unusual working schedules affect social life?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-025, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    37. Scheffel, Juliane, 2011. "Identifying the effect of temporal work flexibility on parental time with children," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-024, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    38. Song, Song & Bickel, Peter J., 2011. "Large vector auto regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    39. Bindseil, Ulrich & König, Philipp Johann, 2011. "The economics of TARGET2 balances," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-035, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    40. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2011. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and the natural rate hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    41. Yao, Fang, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and Inflation Persistence," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48718, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    42. Herrera, Rodrigo & Schipp, Bernhard, 2011. "Extreme value models in a conditional duration intensity framework," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-022, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    43. Bindseil, Ulrich & Lamoot, Jeroen, 2011. "The Basel III framework for liquidity standards and monetary policy implementation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-041, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    44. Joseph W. Glauber & Keith J. Collins & Peter J. Barry, 2002. "Crop insurance, disaster assistance, and the role of the federal government in providing catastrophic risk protection," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 62(2), pages 81-101, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-055 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mammen, Enno & Rothe, Christoph & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Semiparametric Estimation With Generated Covariates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 1140-1177, October.
    3. Cheridito, Patrick & Horst, Ulrich & Kupper, Michael & Pirvu, Traian A., 2011. "Equilibrium pricing in incomplete markets under translation invariant preferences," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-083, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Luc Bauwens & Christian M. Hafner & Diane Pierret, 2013. "Multivariate Volatility Modeling Of Electricity Futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 743-761, August.
    5. Bocart, Fabian Y.R.P. & Hafner, Christian M., 2012. "Econometric analysis of volatile art markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3091-3104.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-056 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chen, Ray-Bing & Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2011. "TVICA - time varying independent component analysis and its application to financial data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-054, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-064 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-054 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Huang, Ruihong, 2011. "Limit order flow, market impact and optimal order sizes: Evidence from NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-056, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    11. Aurélie Bertrand & Christian Hafner, 2014. "On heterogeneous latent class models with applications to the analysis of rating scores," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 307-330, February.
    12. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-063 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-083 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Horst, Ulrich & Kupper, Michael & Macrina, Andrea & Mainberger, Christoph, 2011. "Continuous equilibrium under base preferences and attainable initial endowments," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-082, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    16. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-071 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Marsili, Matteo, 2012. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1088-1100.
    19. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-058 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-053 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-052 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Kratz, Peter & Schöneborn, Torsten, 2011. "Optimal liquidation in dark pools," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-058, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    23. Schneider, Dorothee, 2011. "The labor share: A review of theory and evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-069, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    24. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-069 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Naujokat, Felix & Horst, Ulrich, 2011. "When to cross the spread: Curve following with singular control," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-053, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    26. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    27. Heyne, Gregor & Kupper, Michael & Mainberger, Christoph, 2011. "Minimal supersolutions of BSDEs with lower semicontinuous generations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-067, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    28. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-072 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Cebiroğlu, Gökhan & Horst, Ulrich, 2011. "Optimal display of Iceberg orders," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-057, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    30. Tischer, Sven & Hildebrandt, Lutz, 2011. "Linking corporate reputation and shareholder value using the publication of reputation rankings," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-065, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    31. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-065 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-057 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-067 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-085 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Myšičková, Alena & Song, Song & Majer, Piotr & Mohr, Peter N. C. & Heekeren, Hauke R. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2011. "Risk patterns and correlated brain activities: Multidimensional statistical analysis of fMRI data with application to risk patterns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-085, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    36. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2011. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and the natural rate hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    37. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-049 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Raffaele Fiocco & Mario Gilli, 2012. "Bargaining and Collusion in a Regulatory Model," Chapters, in: Joseph E. Harrington Jr & Yannis Katsoulacos (ed.), Recent Advances in the Analysis of Competition Policy and Regulation, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    39. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-084 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Fiocco, Raffaele, 2011. "Competition and regulation in a differentiated good market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-084, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rainfall derivatives; equilibrium pricing; space-time Markov model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2011-055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.