[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/roswps/151.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment: Evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Hennecke, Peter
Abstract
In this paper it is shown that the ECB's main refinance rate, measured by various Taylor-rules, is far too low for Germany for over half a decade. That entails risks for the stability of Germany's financial system. How strong these risks materialize depends on the extent to which German banks pass on the low policy rates to their customers. In this paper, the interest rate pass-through in Germany in the low interest era is investigated using error-correction models for various bank interest rates. The results indicate a stronger short-term pass-through as well as diminished interest rate margins that weigh on banks' profits. However, there is no evidence for structural changes in the long-term relationship between policy rates and banks' interest rates. While the latter might be soothing for monetary policy makers, the former is rather a reason for concern.

Suggested Citation

  • Hennecke, Peter, 2017. "The interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment: Evidence from Germany," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 151, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:roswps:151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157232/1/884557383.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bondt Gabe J. de, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Results for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 37-78, February.
    2. Egert, Balazs & Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Reininger, Thomas, 2007. "Interest rate pass-through in central and Eastern Europe: Reborn from ashes merely to pass away?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 209-225.
    3. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Weth, Mark A., 2002. "The pass-through from market interest rates to bank lending rates in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94.
    7. Busch, Ramona & Memmel, Christoph, 2015. "Banks' net interest margin and the level of interest rates," Discussion Papers 16/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    9. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 273-295.
    10. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
    11. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2016. "Aufschwung bleibt moderat – Wirtschaftspolitik wenig wachstumsorientiert," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(08), pages 03-59, April.
    12. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    14. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through, monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 236-251, March.
    16. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – New evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-24.
    17. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2014. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.),Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 3, pages 61-116, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    19. Linda A. Toolsema & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2001. "Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 465, CESifo.
    20. Ehrmann, Michael & Worms, Andreas, 2001. "Interbank lending and monetary policy transmission - evidence for Germany," Working Paper Series 73, European Central Bank.
    21. Ms. Angeliki Kourelis & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1994/039, International Monetary Fund.
    22. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    24. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2004. "Convergence in euro-zone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-492, April.
    25. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    26. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in Europe and the US: Monetary policy after the financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 323-338, May.
    27. Krylova, Elizaveta & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Moccero, Diego & Marchini, Claudia, 2014. "The retail bank interest rate pass-through: The case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis," Occasional Paper Series 155, European Central Bank.
    28. De Graeve, Ferre & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vennet, Rudi Vander, 2007. "Competition, transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 259-278, January.
    29. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    30. Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "Bank behavior, incomplete interest rate pass-through, and the cost channel of monetary policy transmission," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1310-1327, November.
    31. Anamaria Illes & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through since the financial crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    32. Michel Bordo & John Lando-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 710, Central Bank of Chile.
    33. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    34. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
    35. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2016. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2016: Aufschwung bleibt moderat – Wirtschaftspolitik wenig wachstumsorientiert," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 22(2), pages 25-25.
    36. Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen & Peter Welz, 2011. "Interest Rate Pass-through During the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Sweden," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 855, OECD Publishing.
    37. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hennecke, Peter, 2017. "Zinstransmission in der Niedrigzinsphase: Eine empirische Untersuchung des Zinskanals in Deutschland," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 150, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    2. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 273-295.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – New evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-24.
    4. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    5. Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2012. "Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 571-593.
    6. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    7. Bennouna, Hicham, 2019. "Interest rate pass-through in Morocco: Evidence from bank-level survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 142-157.
    8. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & van Ewijk, Saskia E., 2014. "A state space approach to measuring the impact of sovereign and credit risk on interest rate convergence in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 340-357.
    9. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    10. Illes, Anamaria & Lombardi, Marco J. & Mizen, Paul, 2019. "The divergence of bank lending rates from policy rates after the financial crisis: The role of bank funding costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 117-141.
    11. Popiel Michal Ksawery, 2017. "Interest rate pass-through: a nonlinear vector error-correction approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Michaelis, Henrike, 2024. "Changes in the euro area interest rate pass-through," Discussion Papers 21/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15030 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Leontieva, E.A. & Perevyshin, Y.N., 2015. "Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in Russia," Published Papers 431505, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    16. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Lesanovska, Jitka, 2016. "Bank efficiency and interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Czech loan products," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 153-169.
    17. Ansgar Belke & Joscha Beckmann & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the EMU – New Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration Techniques for Fully Harmonized Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0350, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Thomas Siemsen & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 991-1021, September.
    19. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013. "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1375-1414, October.
    20. repec:zbw:rwirep:0350 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 2021-03, CRESE.
    22. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2016. "Time-varying mark-up and the ECB monetary policy transmission in a highly non linear framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 247-262.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    low interest rates; interest rate pass-through; interest rate channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:roswps:151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivrosde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.