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The Effects of Mandatory Speed Limits on Crash Frequency - A Causal Machine Learning Approach

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  • Metz-Peeters, Maike
Abstract
This study analyzes the effects of binding speed limits on crash frequency on German motorways. Various geo-spatial data sources are merged to a new data set providing rich information on roadway characteristics for 500-meter segments of large parts of the German motorway network. The empirical analysis uses a causal forest, which allows to estimate the effects of speed limits on crash frequency under fairly weak assumptions about the underlying data generating process and provides insights into treatment effect heterogeneity. The paper is the first to explicitly discuss possible pitfalls and potential solutions when applying causal forests to geo-spatial data. Substantial negative effects of three levels of speed limits on accident rates are found, being largest for severe, and especially fatal crash rates, while effects on light crash rates are rather moderate. The heterogeneity analysis suggest that the effects are larger for less congested roads, as well as for roads with entrance and exit ramps, while heterogeneity regarding shares of heavy traffic is inconclusive.

Suggested Citation

  • Metz-Peeters, Maike, 2023. "The Effects of Mandatory Speed Limits on Crash Frequency - A Causal Machine Learning Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 982, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, revised 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:982
    DOI: 10.4419/96973147
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
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    6. Orley Ashenfelter & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "Using Mandated Speed Limits to Measure the Value of a Statistical Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 226-267, February.
    7. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crash frequency; speed limits; German Autobahn; causal machine learning; causal forest; spatial machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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