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Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2016 - Euroraum: Erholung zunächst von Unsicherheit belastet
[Euro Area Economy Spring 2016 - Euro Area: Uncertainty weighs temporarily on recovery]

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Reitz, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich
Abstract
Die moderate Erholung im Euroraum hat sich zuletzt etwas verlangsamt. Aufgrund dämpfender Einflüsse aus dem weltwirtschaftlichen Umfeld und einem spürbaren Anstieg der politischen Unsicherheit haben sich auch einige Stimmungsindikatoren am aktuellen Rand leicht eingetrübt. Gleichwohl erscheinen die Auftriebskräfte intakt - die Binnenabsorption wies robuste Zuwächse auf und der Arbeitsmarkt belebte sich weiter - so dass die zu Jahresbeginn verzeichnete leichte Abkühlung nur vorrübergehend sein dürfte. Die Konjunktur wird weiterhin durch niedrige Zinsen und Ölpreise unterstützt, sowie von dem nach wie vor vergleichsweise geringen Außenwert des Euro. Zudem dürfte die Fiskalpolitik über den Prognosezeitraum hinweg expansiv ausgerichtet sein. Alles in allem erwarten wir eine Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,5 Prozent im laufenden Jahr und um 1,9 Prozent im Jahr 2017 (0,2 bzw. 0,1 Prozentpunkte weniger als in unserer Dezemberprognose). Die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt wird sich weiter verbessern, die Arbeitslosenquote sukzessive auf 9,6 Prozent im Jahr 2017 sinken. Die Verbraucherpreise liegen derzeit infolge der rückläufigen Energiepreise zwar abermals unter ihrem Vorjahreswert, dürften in der zweiten Jahreshälfte aber wieder zulegen; für die Jahre 2016 und 2017 rechnen wir mit Preissteigerungsraten von durchschnittlich 0,2 Prozent und 1,3 Prozent.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Reitz, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2016 - Euroraum: Erholung zunächst von Unsicherheit belastet [Euro Area Economy Spring 2016 - Euro Area: Uncertainty weighs temporarily on recovery]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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