[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1945.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows

Author

Listed:
  • Gelman, Maria
  • Jochem, Axel
  • Reitz, Stefan
  • Taylor, Mark P.
Abstract
Foreign exchange rates, asset prices and capital movements are expected to be closely related to each other as international capital markets become more and more integrated. This paper provides new empirical evidence from an index of exchange-rate adjusted cross-country asset price ratios, which may be interpreted as a real effective financial exchange rate. The integrated stock-flow approach reveals that a county's real effective financial exchange rate is co-integrated with international investors' net foreign holding of its assets. The associated error correction equations have useful interpretations against the backdrop of uncovered return parity and investor portfolio rebalancing behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Kiel Working Papers 1945, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1945
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100074/1/791667944.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gavin, Michael, 1992. "Monetary policy, exchange rates, and investment in a Keynesian economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 145-161, April.
    2. Roberto A. De Santis, 2010. "The Geography of International Portfolio Flows, International CAPM, and the Role of Monetary Policy Frameworks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 147-197, June.
    3. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    6. De Santis, Roberto A. & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks," Working Paper Series 883, European Central Bank.
    7. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    8. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand," BIS Working Papers 287, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, April.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    12. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    13. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    14. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, April.
    15. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    16. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    17. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    18. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    19. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, September.
    20. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    21. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004-15, CEPII research center.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 1998/067, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Schmitz, Martin & De Clercq, Maarten & Fidora, Michael & Lauro, Bernadette & Pinheiro, Cristina, 2012. "Revisiting the effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 134, European Central Bank.
    25. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    26. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    27. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Olivier J Blanchard, 2009. "Global Imbalances: In Midstream?," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/029, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances [‘New rates for new weights’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 520-573.
    29. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    30. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    31. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    32. Thimann, Christian & Buldorini, Luca & Makrydakis, Stelios, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    33. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    34. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    35. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Burden sharing and exchange rate misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Post-Print hal-03550853, HAL.
    36. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2007. "The uncovered return parity condition," Working Paper Series 812, European Central Bank.
    37. Robin Brooks & Hali Edison & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 511-533, September.
    38. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    39. Ms. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Mr. Enrique Alberola Ila & Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 1999/175, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    41. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2010. "International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 358-386, March.
    42. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2000. "The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-67, January.
    43. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank.
    44. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank.
    45. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    46. Laurent E. Calvet & John Y. Campbell & Paolo Sodini, 2009. "Fight or Flight? Portfolio Rebalancing by Individual Investors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 301-348.
    47. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements.
    48. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    49. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    50. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Olivier J Blanchard, 2009. "Global Imbalances; In Midstream?," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/29, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    52. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    53. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    54. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.
    55. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    56. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    57. Schmitz, Martin & De Clercq, Maarten & Fidora, Michael & Lauro, Bernadette & Pinheiro, Cristina, 2012. "Revisiting the effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 134, European Central Bank.
    58. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    59. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    60. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    61. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Stock markets and exchange rate behavior of the BRICS," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1581-1595, December.
    2. Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "International comparison of stock market valuation: Evidence from a new index," Kiel Policy Brief 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2024. "Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Muhammad Naveed Jamil & Hafsa Khan & Zuhaib Nishtar & Dr. Abdul Rasheed, 2023. "Exploring The Role Of Stock Exchanges And Exchange Rates For Sustainable Economic Development: A Cross Culture Study Of Emerging And Developed Markets," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(2), pages 308-319.
    5. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Wu, Haoran & Xu, Tongbin & Yang, Min, 2024. "Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Vietha Devia SS, 2019. "Economic Growth: How Inflation and the Exchange Rate Work Through the Stock Market as a Mediating Variable," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 197-209, December.
    7. Ben-Salha Ousama & Zmami Mourad, 2020. "The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in the MENA region," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(3), pages 45-67, August.
    8. Li, Xin & Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Ma, Ji, 2018. "Do short-term international capital movements play a role in exchange rate and stock price transmission mechanism in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 15-25.
    9. Pilar Beneito & Carlos Chafer, 2017. "Current Account Imbalances and Cost Competitiveness: The Role of the Euro," Working Papers 1703, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    10. Valentyna Ozimkovska, 2018. "Real financial market exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 281-303, April.
    11. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Chikashi Tsuji, 2015. "Exchange Rate Effects on Equity Prices: The Recent Case from Japan," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Adam, Tomáš & Benecká, Soňa & Matějů, Jakub, 2018. "Financial stress and its non-linear impact on CEE exchange rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 346-360.
    14. Pastorek, Daniel, 2023. "Euro area uncertainty and Euro exchange rate volatility: Exploring the role of transnational economic policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    15. Pilar Beneito & Carlos Cháfer, 2020. "Capital Inflows and Costs: The Role of the Euro," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 977-1008, November.
    16. Chen, Liming & Du, Ziqing & Hu, Zhihao, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and rebalancing in international portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-99.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    3. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    4. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rates and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Time Series vs. Panel Estimates," Working Papers 2010.3, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
    6. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    7. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    9. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    10. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.
    11. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    12. Boubekeur Baba & Güven Sevil, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    14. Kim, Kyungkeun & Lee, Dongwon, 2020. "Equity market integration and portfolio rebalancing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    16. Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2013. "Real exchange rates, trade balance and capital flows in Africa," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 22-46.
    20. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "Persistence of Current-account Disequilibria and Real Exchange-rate Misalignments," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 137-159, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Effective Exchange Rate; Capital Flows; Financial Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.