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Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?

Author

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  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
Abstract
The economic and financial crisis that emerged in 2008 also initiated an intense discussion on macroeconomic research and the role of economists in society. The debate focuses on three main issues. Firstly, it is argued that economists failed to predict the crisis and to design early warning systems. Secondly, it is claimed that economists use models of the macroeconomy which fail to integrate financial markets and which are inadequate to model large economic crises. Thirdly, the issue has been raised that economists invoke unrealistic assumptions concerning human behaviour by assuming that all agents are self-centred, rationally optimizing individuals. In this paper, we focus on the first two issues. Overall, our thrust is that the above statements are a caricature of modern economic theory and empirics. A rich field of research developed already before the crisis and picked up shortcomings of previous models.

Suggested Citation

  • Buch, Claudia M. & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2014. "Do We Need New Modelling Approaches in Macroeconomics?," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-8-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2018. "Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Daniel DAIANU, 2015. "A Central Bank’S Dilemmas In Highly Uncertain Times - A Romanian View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 159-180, March.
    3. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2019. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 580-600.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; economic forecasting and early warning systems; macroeconomic modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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