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Relationship between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study

Author

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  • Parikh, Ashok
Abstract
The objectives of this paper are to study the impact of liberalisation on trade deficits and current accounts of developing countries. It is expected that trade liberalisation would promote economic growth from the supply side by leading to a more efficient use of resources, by encouraging competition, and by increasing the flow of ideas and knowledge across national boundaries. Trade liberalisation could lead to faster import growth than export growth and hence the supply side benefits may be offset by the unsustainable balance of payments position. This study uses panel data of 42 countries (both time-series and cross-section dimension) to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation and growth on trade balance while controlling for other factors such as income terms of trade. The major finding of the study is that trade liberalisation promotes growth in most cases, (Part 1 of this study) the growth itself has a negative impact on trade balance and this in turn could have negative impacts on growth through deterioration in trade balance and adverse terms of trade. Our conclusion is that trade liberalisation could constrain growth through adverse impact on balance of payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Parikh, Ashok, 2004. "Relationship between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study," HWWA Discussion Papers 286, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26212
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parikh, Ashok & Stirbu, Corneliu, 2004. "Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation," Discussion Paper Series 26267, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    3. Parikh, Ashok & Stirbu, Corneliu, 2004. "Relationship between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation," HWWA Discussion Papers 282, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    4. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mirza Qamar Baig, 2009. "Pakistan’s Trade Policy, 1999–2008: An Assessment," PIDE-Working Papers 2009:55, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Atif Ali Jaffri & Faisal Abbas & Azad Haider, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Improve Trade Balance in Pakistan?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(2), pages 158-183, September.
    3. Stojkov, Aleksandar & Zalduendo, Juan, 2011. "Europe as a convergence engine -- heterogeneity and investment opportunities in emerging Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5837, The World Bank.
    4. Mirza Qamar Baig, 2009. "Pakistan’s Trade Policy, 1999–2008 : An Assessment," Trade Working Papers 22978, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; Income Terms of Trade; Dynamic Optimisation; Dynamic panel model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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