[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp2013_019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contagion in the interbank network: An epidemiological approach

Author

Listed:
  • Toivanen, Mervi
Abstract
This paper analyses the importance of individual bank-specific factors on financial stability. First, we use a novel method to model the spreading of the contagion in the interbank network by implementing an epidemiologic model. Actual data on European banks is exploited with simulated scale-free networks. The average contagion affected 70% and 40% of European banks' total assets in 2007 and in 2010, respectively. Country-level results suggest that French, British, German and Spanish banks are the most contagious ones, whereas banks from Ireland, Greece and Portugal induce only limited negative effects. Secondly, cross-sectional panel estimations are performed to disentangle the leading indicators influencing the level of contagion. Bank clustering, large in-coming interbank loans and bank reputation are more prominent explanatory variables than the size or leverage. Finally, central banks' interventions reduce contagion only slightly.

Suggested Citation

  • Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network: An epidemiological approach," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2013_019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212259/1/bof-rdp2013-019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    2. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    3. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    4. Masazumi Hattori & Yuko Suda, 2007. "Developments in a Cross-Border Bank Exposure "Network"," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-21, Bank of Japan.
    5. Becher, Christopher & Millard, Stephen & SoramÃÂäki, Kimmo, 2008. "The network topology of CHAPS Sterling," Bank of England working papers 355, Bank of England.
    6. Simon Wells, 2004. "Financial interlinkages in the United Kingdom's interbank market and the risk of contagion," Bank of England working papers 230, Bank of England.
    7. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    8. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    9. Reint Gropp & Marco Lo Duca & Jukka Vesala, 2009. "Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 97-139, March.
    10. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    11. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
    12. Christoph Memmel & Angelika Sachs & Ingrid Stein, 2012. "Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 177-206, September.
    13. Craig, Ben & von Peter, Goetz, 2014. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-347.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    15. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Interbank lending and systemic risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 733-765.
    16. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
    17. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "The role of banks in the Brazilian interbank market: Does bank type matter?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6825-6836.
    18. Masazumi Hattori & Yuko Suda, 2007. "Developments in a cross-border bank exposure "network"," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 16-31, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    20. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross‐Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 209-240, June.
    21. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    22. Krause, Andreas & Giansante, Simone, 2012. "Interbank lending and the spread of bank failures: A network model of systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 583-608.
    23. Toivanen, Mervi, 2009. "Financial interlinkages and risk of contagion in the Finnish interbank market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2009, Bank of Finland.
    24. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross‐Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 209-240, June.
    25. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    27. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    28. Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May, 2011. "Systemic risk in banking ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 469(7330), pages 351-355, January.
    29. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    30. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
    31. Arinaminpathy, Nimalan & Kapadia, Sujit & May, Robert, 2012. "Size and complexity in model financial systems," Bank of England working papers 465, Bank of England.
    32. Song, Dong-Ming & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "Statistical properties of world investment networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(12), pages 2450-2460.
    33. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    34. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Naixi & Fan, Hong, 2023. "Credit risk contagion and optimal dual control—An SIS/R model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 448-472.
    2. Chen, Naixi & Fan, Hong, 2023. "Contagion and supervision of liquidity crisis in interbank markets: Based on the SIS network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network : An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.
    3. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    4. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    5. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    6. Teteryatnikova, Mariya, 2014. "Systemic risk in banking networks: Advantages of “tiered” banking systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 186-210.
    7. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    10. Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser & Alessandro Spelta, 2019. "Identifying systemically important financial institutions: a network approach," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 155-185, February.
    11. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    12. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    13. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    14. Giulio Cimini & Matteo Serri, 2016. "Entangling Credit and Funding Shocks in Interbank Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, August.
    15. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    16. Fathin Faizah Said, 2017. "Global Banking on the Financial Network Modelling: Sectorial Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 227-253, February.
    17. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    18. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    19. Krause, Andreas & Giansante, Simone, 2012. "Interbank lending and the spread of bank failures: A network model of systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 583-608.
    20. Sadamori Kojaku & Giulio Cimini & Guido Caldarelli & Naoki Masuda, 2018. "Structural changes in the interbank market across the financial crisis from multiple core-periphery analysis," Papers 1802.05139, arXiv.org.
    21. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2023. "The role of credit lines and multiple lending in financial contagion and systemic events," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; banks; Europe; interbank; epidemiology; panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2013_019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.