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Price level targeting with evolving credibility

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  • Honkapohja, Seppo
  • Kaushik, Mitra
Abstract
We examine global dynamics under learning in a nonlinear New Keynesian model when monetary policy uses price-level targeting and compare it to inflation targeting. Domain of attraction of the targeted steady state gives a robustness criterion for policy regimes. Robustness of price-level targeting depends on whether a known target path is incorporated into learning. Credibility is measured by accuracy of this forecasting method relative to simple statistical forecasts. Credibility evolves through reinforcement learning. Initial credibility and initial level of target price are key factors influencing performance. Results match the Swedish experience of price level stabilization in 1920's and 30s.

Suggested Citation

  • Honkapohja, Seppo & Kaushik, Mitra, 2018. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2018, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2018_005
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    Cited by:

    1. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Working Paper Series 2714, European Central Bank.
    2. Honkapohja, Seppo & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "On Robustness of Average Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 16001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
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    7. Corbisiero, Giuseppe, 2018. "Monetary policy regimes and the lower bound on interest rates," Economic Letters 6/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    9. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    10. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    11. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Olena Kostyshyna & Luba Petersen & Jing Yang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation," Staff Working Papers 22-33, Bank of Canada.
    13. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does "below, but close to, two percent" mean? Assessing the ECB's reaction function with real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
    15. Evans, David & Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2022. "Bounded rationality and unemployment dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
    18. Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Röttger, Joost, 2023. "Make-up strategies with incomplete markets and bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 01/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Smith, Thomas & Tadesse, Amanuel F. & Vincent, Nishani Edirisinghe, 2021. "The impact of CIO characteristics on data breaches," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    20. Busetti, Fabio & Neri, Stefano & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    21. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Price level targeting under fiscal dominance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    22. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    23. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    24. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.
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    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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