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Uncertainty and firm dividend policy – a natural experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Buchanan, Bonnie
  • Cao, Xuying (Cathy)
  • Liljeblom, Eva
  • Weihrich, Susan
Abstract
We examine how firms respond to uncertainty around U.S. tax policy changes, namely the individual level tax rate increases set to take effect on January 1, 2011 and January 1, 2013. We provide evidence that firms time the uncertainty in the tax environment and revise their dividend policy to an expected tax increase. We find that firms are likely to initiate their dividends or intensively increase their existing dividend amount one year before the expected tax increase. In addition, in 2012 when there is much less uncertainty on dividend tax changes than in 2010, firms are less likely to initiate a regular dividend but are more likely to initiate special dividends. The results suggest that firms facing less tax uncertainty are less likely to make long-term commitments on regular dividend payments but are more likely to take advantage of the last-minute low tax benefits by issuing special dividends. Furthermore, the response to the possible elimination of a tax cut was strongest in firms with high levels of tax-affected ownership, supporting the argument that when facing policy uncertainty, firms behave to prepare for the worst scenarios from the viewpoint of the shareholders, which in this case is a tax increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchanan, Bonnie & Cao, Xuying (Cathy) & Liljeblom, Eva & Weihrich, Susan, 2016. "Uncertainty and firm dividend policy – a natural experiment," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2016, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2016_011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Colombo, Jéfferson A. & Caldeira, João F., 2018. "The role of taxes and the interdependence among corporate financial policies: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 402-423.
    8. Shamsabadi, Hussein Abedi & Tebourbi, Imen & Nourani, Mohammad & Min, Byung S., 2021. "Corporate Governance and Dividend Reinvestment Plans: Insights from Imputation Tax in Australia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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