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Estimating sustainable output growth in emerging market economies

Author

Listed:
  • Krupkina, Anna
  • Deryugina, Elena B.
  • Ponomarenko, Alexey
Abstract
In the spirit of Borio et al. (2014) we present a model that incorporates information contained in diverse variables when estimating sustainable output growth. For this purpose, we specify a state-space model representing a multivariate HP-filter that links cyclical fluctuation of GDP with several indicators of macroeconomic imbalance. We obtain the parameterization of the model by estimating it over a cross-section of emerging market economies. We show that trend output growth rates estimated using this model are more stable than those obtained with a univariate version of the filter and thus are more consistent with the notion of sustainable output.

Suggested Citation

  • Krupkina, Anna & Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014. "Estimating sustainable output growth in emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2014_011
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    Cited by:

    1. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    2. Kátay Gábor & Kerdelhué Lisa & Lequien Matthieu, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working papers 791, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; financial cycle; macroeconomic imbalances; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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