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Heterogeneous expectations and asset price dynamics

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  • Schmitt, Noemi
Abstract
Within the seminal asset-pricing model by Brock and Hommes (1998), heterogeneous boundedly rational agents choose between a fixed number of expectation rules to forecast asset prices. However, agents' heterogeneity is limited in the sense that they typically switch between a representative technical and a representative fundamental expectation rule. Here we generalize their framework by considering that all agents follow their own time-varying technical and fundamental expectation rules. Estimating our model using the method of simulated moments reveals that it is able to explain the statistical properties of the daily behavior of the S&P500 quite well. Moreover, our analysis reveals that heterogeneity is not only a realistic model property but clearly helps to explain the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmitt, Noemi, 2018. "Heterogeneous expectations and asset price dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 134, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Martin Carolin & Westerhoff Frank, 2019. "Regulating Speculative Housing Markets via Public Housing Construction Programs: Insights from a Heterogeneous Agent Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 627-660, August.
    4. Roberto Dieci & Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2018. "Steady states, stability and bifurcations in multi-asset market models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(2), pages 357-378, November.
    5. Severin Reissl, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecasting behaviour and policy experiments in a hybrid Agent-based Stock-flow-consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 251-299, January.
    6. Mundt, Philipp & Oh, Ilfan, 2019. "Asymmetric competition, risk, and return distribution," BERG Working Paper Series 145, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Philipp Mundt & Simone Alfarano & Mishael Milaković, 2022. "Survival and the Ergodicity of Corporate Profitability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3726-3734, May.
    8. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2020. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 221-233.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial markets; stylized facts; agent-based models; technical and fundamental analysis; heterogeneity and coordination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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