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The short-run nationwide Macroeconomic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes

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  • Doyle, Lisa
  • Noy, Ilan
Abstract
We examine the short-run impact of the Canterbury earthquakes (4/9/2010, and 22/2/2011) on the New Zealand economy using VAR macro-models. Maybe surprisingly, we find little evidence of a pronounced impact on the aggregate economy. Our results suggest that the earthquakes reduced CPI inflation moderately, and the first earthquake had a small but short-lived, adverse effect on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. At the very worse, it appears that policies (by the government and the Reserve Bank) have been successful in mitigating any serious adverse impact. The more significant impact of the earthquakes is to be found at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Doyle, Lisa & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "The short-run nationwide Macroeconomic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes," Working Paper Series 18764, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:18764
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    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/18764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Diego D'iaz & Pablo Paniagua & Cristi'an Larroulet, 2024. "Earthquakes and the wealth of nations: The cases of Chile and New Zealand," Papers 2405.12041, arXiv.org.
    7. Jeroen Klomp & John Sseruyange, 2021. "Earthquakes and Economic Outcomes: Does Central Bank Independence Matter?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 335-359, April.
    8. John Beirne & Yannis Dafermos & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz & Jana Wittich, 2021. "The Effects of Natural Disasters on Price Stability in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1981, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "Do natural disasters affect monetary policy? A quasi-experiment of earthquakes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Xiaojia Bao & Jianan Li & Puyang Sun, 2019. "Typhoon, Earthquake and Food Price: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2019-07-08, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    11. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Jooste, Charl & McIsaac, Florent, 2024. "Modeling the macroeconomic consequences of natural disasters: Capital stock, recovery dynamics, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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