[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/201717.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Wisdom of the Crowd in Dynamic Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Pietro Dindo

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari)

  • Filippo Massari

    (Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia)

Abstract
The Wisdom of the Crowd applied to financial markets asserts that prices represent a consensus belief that is more accurate than individual beliefs. However, a market selection argument implies that prices eventually reflect only the beliefs of the most accurate agent. In this paper, we show how to reconcile these alternative points of view. In markets in which agents naively learn from equilibrium prices, a dynamic Wisdom of the Crowd holds. Market participation increases agents' accuracy, and equilibrium prices are more accurate than the most accurate agent.

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Dindo & Filippo Massari, 2017. "The Wisdom of the Crowd in Dynamic Economies," Working Papers 2017:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.unive.it/web/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/DEC/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2017/WP_DSE_dindo_massari_17_17.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Wealth Dynamics in a Bond Economy with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 2009. "The market organism: Long-run survival in markets with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1023-1035, May.
    5. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    7. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    8. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
    9. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dindo, Pietro, 2014. "Evolution and market behavior with endogenous investment rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 121-146.
    10. Marinacci, Massimo & Massari, Filippo, 2019. "Learning from ambiguous and misspecified models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 144-149.
    11. Jadbabaie, Ali & Molavi, Pooya & Sandroni, Alvaro & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2012. "Non-Bayesian social learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 210-225.
    12. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-678, May.
    13. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
    14. George J. Mailath & Alvaro Sandroni, 2003. "Market Selection and Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 343-368.
    15. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
    16. Beker, Pablo & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2010. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: A characterisation when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(6), pages 2133-2185, November.
    17. Guerdjikova, Ani & Sciubba, Emanuela, 2015. "Survival with ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 50-94.
    18. Grossman, Sanford, 1978. "Further results on the informational efficiency of competitive stock markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-101, June.
    19. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340, Elsevier.
    20. Geanakoplos, John D. & Polemarchakis, Heraklis M., 1982. "We can't disagree forever," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 192-200, October.
    21. Filippo Massari, 2013. "Comment on If You're so Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 849-851, March.
    22. Breitmayer, Bastian & Massari, Filippo & Pelster, Matthias, 2019. "Swarm intelligence? Stock opinions of the crowd and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 443-464.
    23. Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    24. Peleg, Bezalel & Yaari, Menahem E, 1970. "Markets with Countably Many Commodities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 369-377, October.
    25. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4413 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    27. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 211-211.
    28. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    29. Massari, Filippo, 2017. "Markets with heterogeneous beliefs: A necessary and sufficient condition for a trader to vanish," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 190-205.
    30. Grossman, Sanford J, 1976. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Trades Have Diverse Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 573-585, May.
    31. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-815, August.
    32. G. Bottazzi & D. Giachini, 2019. "Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1461-1471, September.
    33. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
    34. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
    35. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1993. "Economic natural selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(2-3), pages 281-289.
    36. Scott E. Page, 2007. "Prologue to The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies," Introductory Chapters, in: The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies, Princeton University Press.
    37. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    38. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "Strategically Biased Learning In Market Interactions," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Datta, Bikramaditya & Sethi, Rajiv, 2023. "The dynamics of leverage and the belief distribution of wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 20-31.
    3. Bottazzi, Giulio & Giachini, Daniele & Ottaviani, Matteo, 2023. "Market selection and learning under model misspecification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Tóth & Michael Benzaquen, 2023. "Microfounding GARCH models and beyond: a Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 599-625, July.
    5. Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Rationality and Asset Prices under Belief Heterogeneity," LEM Papers Series 2018/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Bikramaditya Datta & Rajiv Sethi, 2023. "The Dynamics of Leverage and the Belief Distribution of Wealth," Papers 2304.03436, arXiv.org.
    7. Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2023. "Attention to the Fads and Fashions in the Indian Stock Markets During COVID-19," Vision, , vol. 27(2), pages 202-224, April.
    8. Daniele Giachini, 2021. "Rationality and asset prices under belief heterogeneity," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-233, January.
    9. Zawadzka-Pąk Urszula K., 2022. "Participatory Budgeting as the Instrument of Technologically Supported Dialogue in Cracow, Poland," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 3-19, December.
    10. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    11. Andrea Antico & Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "On the evolutionary stability of the sentiment investor," LEM Papers Series 2022/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Filippo Massari, 2021. "Price probabilities: a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(1), pages 133-166, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2020. "Market selection with an endogenous state," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 51-59.
    2. Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    3. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    4. Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Rationality and Asset Prices under Belief Heterogeneity," LEM Papers Series 2018/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    6. Massari, Filippo, 2017. "Markets with heterogeneous beliefs: A necessary and sufficient condition for a trader to vanish," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 190-205.
    7. Filippo Massari, 2021. "Price probabilities: a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 72(1), pages 133-166, July.
    8. Bottazzi, Giulio & Giachini, Daniele & Ottaviani, Matteo, 2023. "Market selection and learning under model misspecification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Massari, Filippo, 2019. "Market selection in large economies: a matter of luck," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), May.
    10. Breitmayer, Bastian & Massari, Filippo & Pelster, Matthias, 2019. "Swarm intelligence? Stock opinions of the crowd and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 443-464.
    11. Daniele Giachini, 2021. "Rationality and asset prices under belief heterogeneity," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-233, January.
    12. Andrea Antico & Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "On the evolutionary stability of the sentiment investor," LEM Papers Series 2022/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Ani Guerdjikova & John Quiggin, 2019. "Market Selection With Differential Financial Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(5), pages 1693-1762, September.
    14. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dindo, Pietro, 2022. "Drift criteria for persistence of discrete stochastic processes on the line," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Hirshleifer, David & Lo, Andrew W. & Zhang, Ruixun, 2023. "Social contagion and the survival of diverse investment styles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    17. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 2009. "The market organism: Long-run survival in markets with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1023-1035, May.
    18. Mikhail Zhitlukhin, 2021. "Asymptotically optimal strategies in a diffusion approximation of a repeated betting game," Papers 2108.11998, arXiv.org.
    19. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wisdom of the Crowd; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Market Selection Hypothesis; Naive Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sassano Sonia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.