[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uwo/epuwoc/20072.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Successes and Failures of Monetary Policy Since the 1950s

Author

Abstract
Successes and failures in monetary policy stem mainly from coherence or lack thereof in the monetary order, rather than the tactical skills of policy makers. Crucial here are questions of consistency among the economic ideas that the policy regime embodies, the way in which the economy actually functions, and the beliefs of private agents and policy makers about these matters. These postulates are used to frame accounts of the Bretton Woods System and its collapse, the Great Inflation that followed, the subsequent disappointing performance of money-growth targeting, the breakdown of the Japanese "bubble economy" the onset of theEMS crisis at the beginning of the 1990s, and since then, the launch of the Euro and the apparent success of inflation targeting. Though monetary policy seems rather successful at present, certain weaknesses in currently prevailing monetary orders are noted.

Suggested Citation

  • David Laidler, 2007. "Successes and Failures of Monetary Policy Since the 1950s," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20072, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwo:epuwoc:20072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1040&context=economicsepri_wp
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Laidler, 1993. "Price Stability and the Monetary Order," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Kumiharu Shigehara (ed.), Price Stabilization in the 1990s, chapter 10, pages 331-356, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-124, March.
    5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
    6. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1984. "Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment," NBER Working Papers 1272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Darby, Michael R. & Lothian, James R. & Gandolfi, Arthur E. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226136417, September.
    8. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin & Ryan Michaels, 2007. "Three great American disinflations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    11. David Laidler & William B.P. Robson, 2004. "Two Percent Target: The Context, Theory, and Practice of Canadian Monetary Policy since 1991," C.D. Howe Institute Policy Studies, C.D. Howe Institute, number 20041, January.
    12. David Laidler, 2004. "Macroeconomics in Retrospect," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3082.
    13. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    14. Edward Nelson, 2007. "Milton Friedman and U.S. monetary history: 1961-2006," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(May), pages 153-182.
    15. David Laidler, 2003. "The price level, relative prices and economic stability: aspects of the interwar debate," BIS Working Papers 136, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    17. Heymann, Daniel & Sanguinetti, Pablo, 1994. "Fiscal inconsistencies and high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 85-104, February.
    18. Thomas Mayer, 1999. "Monetary Policy and the Great Inflation in the United States," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1601.
    19. Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian, 1983. "Conclusions on the International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 491-524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 1997. "A State within the State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank," CESifo Working Paper Series 131, CESifo.
    21. D. E. W. Laidler & J. M. Parkin, 1977. "Inflation: A Survey," Palgrave Macmillan Books,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    22. Robert A. Mundell, 1972. "The future of the International Financial System," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: A. L. Keith Acheson & John F. Chant & Martin F. J. Prachowny (ed.), Bretton Woods Revisited, pages 91-103, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Filippo Cesarano, 2006. "The Origins of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 711-731, Winter.
    24. von Hagen, J., 1998. "Money Growth Targeting," Papers 643, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    25. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    26. A. Leijonhufvud, 1977. "Costs and Consequences of Inflation," International Economic Association Series, in: G. C. Harcourt (ed.), The Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 265-327, Palgrave Macmillan.
    27. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
    28. David Laidler, 1999. "Passive Money, Active Money, and Monetary Policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1999(Summer), pages 15-25.
    29. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
    30. Rose, Andrew, 2006. "A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed," CEPR Discussion Papers 5854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Ronald G. Wirick, 1981. "The Battle against Inflation: The Bank of Canada and Its Critics," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 7(s1), pages 249-259, July.
    32. David Laidler, 2003. "Monetary Policy without Money: Hamlet without the Ghost," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 20037, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    33. Robert Leeson, 2003. "Ideology and the International Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28602-3, October.
    34. David Laidler, 2004. "Monetary Policy after Bubbles Burst: The Zero Lower Bound, the Liquidity Trap and the Credit Deadlock," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 30(3), pages 333-340, September.
    35. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    36. Axel Leijonhufvud, 1994. "High inflations and the financial System," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 21(2 Year 19), pages 163-177, December.
    37. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William R. White, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy a Science? The Interaction of Theory and Practice over the Last 50 Years," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 3, pages 73-116, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    2. William B.P. Robson, 2009. "To the Next Level: From Gold Standard to Inflation Targets - to Price Stability?," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 285, March.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2009. "Has Inflation Targeting Improved Monetary Policy? Evaluating Policy Effectiveness in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0906, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, September.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    3. Nelson, Edward & Schwartz, Anna J., 2008. "The impact of Milton Friedman on modern monetary economics: Setting the record straight on Paul Krugman's "Who was Milton Friedman?"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 835-856, May.
    4. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    5. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    6. Michael Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2010. "David Laidler on Monetarism," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Robert Leeson (ed.), David Laidler’s Contributions to Economics, chapter 3, pages 44-59, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Helmut Wagner, 2005. "Globalization and financial instability: Challenges for exchange rate and monetary policy," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(7), pages 616-638, July.
    8. David Laidler, 2018. "Why the fuss? Friedman (1968) after 50 years," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 437-445, October.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    10. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    11. Rose, Andrew K. & Mihov, Ilian, 2008. "Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    12. J. David López-Salido & Emily J. Markowitz & Edward Nelson, 2024. "Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve’s Perspective on Price Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Illing, Gerhard & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2018. "Credit booms, debt overhang and secular stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-104.
    14. Pontiggia, D., 2012. "Optimal long-run inflation and the New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1077-1094.
    15. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
    16. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    17. Schenkelberg, Heike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2013. "Real effects of quantitative easing at the zero lower bound: Structural VAR-based evidence from Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 327-357.
    18. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    19. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
    20. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2009. "What Makes the Output–Inflation Trade‐Off Change? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1117-1140, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; policy regimes; crises; pegged exchange rates; flexible exchange rates; inflation; inflation targets; money supply; central banks; central bank independence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwo:epuwoc:20072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://economics.uwo.ca/research/research_papers/epri_workingpapers.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.