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A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth W Clements

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

  • Yihui Lan

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract
Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. Such real-time forecasts can be made on a day-to-day basis if required, so that the forecasts are based on the most up-to-date information set. These high-frequency forecasts could be particularly appealing to decision makers who want up-to-date forecasts of exchange rates. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework which provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. A comparison of our forecasts with the random walk model shows that although the random walk is superior for very short horizons, our approach tends to dominate over the medium to longer term.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan, 2006. "A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-29, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ying-Sing Liu, 2021. "The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    3. Markus Hertrich, 2022. "Foreign exchange interventions under a minimum exchange rate regime and the Swiss franc," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 450-489, May.
    4. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Hertrich, Markus, 2020. "Foreign exchange interventions under a one-sided target zone regime and the Swiss franc," Discussion Papers 21/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Kwok Tong Soo, 2016. "Are hamburgers harmless?," Working Papers 127876397, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    7. O’Brien, Thomas J. & Ruiz de Vargas, Santiago, 2019. "Currency indexes and consistent currency misvaluation: Illustrations using Big Mac data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 464-474.
    8. Shaghayegh KORDNOORI & Hamidreza MOSTAFAEI & Shirin KORDNOORI, 2015. "Applied SCGM(1,1)c Model and Weighted Markov Chain for Exchange Rate Ratios," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 3(4), pages 12-22, December.
    9. David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel Á. Fernández-Gámez, 2023. "Quantum Monte Carlo simulations for estimating FOREX markets: a speculative attacks experience," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Alejandro Parot & Kevin Michell & Werner D. Kristjanpoller, 2019. "Using Artificial Neural Networks to forecast Exchange Rate, including VAR‐VECM residual analysis and prediction linear combination," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 3-15, January.
    11. Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan & Haiyan Liu & Long Vo, 2022. "The Icp, Ppp And Household Expenditure Patterns," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 22-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo, 2017. "Currency evaluation using a big mac index for Thailand – lessons for Vietnam," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 999-1011.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange-rate forecasting; Bic Mac prices; purchasing power parity; Monte Carlo simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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