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Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: Lessons from general equilibrium

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Abstract
We show that in a canonical model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, financial frictions, and an imperfectly elastic supply of capital, a fall in the interest rate has an ambiguous effect on aggregate economic activity. In partial equilibrium, a lower interest rate raises aggregate investment both by relaxing financial constraints and by prompting relatively less productive entrepreneurs to invest. In general equilibrium, however, this higher demand for capital raises its price and crowds out investment by more productive entrepreneurs. When this general-equilibrium induced reallocation is strong enough, a fall in the interest rate reduces aggregate output. We show that this reallocation effect is of the same order of magnitude as the balance-sheet channel, and that the interaction of both gives rise to boom-bust dynamics in response to a fall in the interest rate. Our novel mechanism contributes to the debate on whether and how low-interest environments may foster the proliferation of socially unproductive activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin & Alejandro Van der Ghote & Victoria Vanasco, 2021. "Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: Lessons from general equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 1784, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1784
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    Cited by:

    1. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Paul, Pascal & Sánchez, Juan M., 2024. "Evergreening," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
      • Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Pascal Paul & Juan M. Sanchez, 2021. "Evergreening," Working Papers 2021-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Aug 2023.
      • Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Pascal Paul & Juan M. Sanchez, 2022. "Evergreening," Working Paper Series 2022-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Thomas Kroen & Ernest Liu & Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Falling Rates and Rising Superstars," Working Papers 2021-3, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    3. Beatriz González & Galo Nuño & Dominik Thaler & Silvia Albrizio, 2021. "Firm heterogeneity, capital misallocation and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 2145, Banco de España.
    4. Caggese, Andrea & Pérez-Orive, Ander, 2022. "How stimulative are low real interest rates for intangible capital?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low interest rates; financial frictions; firm heterogeneity; misallocation; credit; asset prices; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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