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Synthetic Control and Inference

Author

Listed:
  • Ruoyao Shi

    (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)

  • Jinyong Hahn

    (UCLA Economics)

Abstract
We examine properties of permutation tests in the context of synthetic control. Permutation tests are frequently used methods of inference for synthetic control when the number of potential control units is small. We analyze the permutation tests from a repeated sampling perspective and show that the size of permutation tests may be distorted. Several alternative methods are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruoyao Shi & Jinyong Hahn, 2016. "Synthetic Control and Inference," Working Papers 201802, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201802
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido W. Imbens, 2016. "Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 22791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ivan A. Canay & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2017. "Randomization Tests Under an Approximate Symmetry Assumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1013-1030, May.
    8. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
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    12. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    synthetic control; permutation test; symmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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