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How sensitive are individual retirement expectations to raising the retirement age?

Author

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  • de Grip, A.

    (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark)

  • Fouarge, D.

    (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark)

  • Montizaan, R.M.

    (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark)

Abstract
This paper investigates the causal effects of the announcement of an increase in the statutory pension age on employee retirement expectations. In June 2010, the Dutch government signed a new pension agreement with the employer and employee organizations that entailed an increase in the statutory pension age from 65 currently to 66 in 2020 for all inhabitants born after 1954. Given the expected increase in average life expectancy, it was also decided that in 2025 the pension age would be further increased to 67 for those born after 1959. This new pension agreement received huge media coverage. Using representative matched administrative and survey data of public sector employees, we find that the proposed policy reform increased the expected retirement age by 3.6 months for employees born between 1954 and 1959 and by 10.8 months for those born after 1959. This increase is reflected in a clear shift in the retirement peak from age 65 to ages 66 and 67 for the respective treated cohorts. Men respond less strongly to the policy reform than women, but within couples we find no evidence that the retirement expectations of one spouse are affected by an increase in the statutory pension age of the other. Furthermore, we show that treatment effects are largely driven by highly educated individuals but are lower for employees whose job involves physically demanding tasks or managerial and supervisory tasks.

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  • de Grip, A. & Fouarge, D. & Montizaan, R.M., 2013. "How sensitive are individual retirement expectations to raising the retirement age?," ROA Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:umaror:2013006
    DOI: 10.26481/umaror.2013006
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    Cited by:

    1. Elsayed, Ahmed & de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2018. "Gradual retirement, financial incentives, and labour supply of older workers: Evidence from a stated preference analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 277-294.
    2. Montizaan, R.M. & de Grip, A. & Fouarge, D., 2015. "Training access, reciprocity, and expected retirement age," Research Memorandum 005, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    3. de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2020. "Redistribution of individual pension wealth to survivor pensions: Evidence from a stated preferences analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 402-421.
    4. Etgeton, Stefan & Fischer, Björn & Ye, Han, 2023. "The effect of increasing retirement age on households’ savings and consumption expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Даниелян, Владимир, 2016. "Детерминанты Пенсионного Возраста: Обзор Исследований [Determinants of Retirement Age: A Review of Research]," MPRA Paper 73865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Vermeer, Niels & Mastrogiacomo, Mauro & Van Soest, Arthur, 2016. "Demanding occupations and the retirement age," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-170.
    7. Bo Honoré & Thomas Jørgensen & Áureo de Paula, 2020. "The informativeness of estimation moments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 797-813, November.
    8. Montizaan, Raymond M. & Vendrik, Maarten C.M., 2014. "Misery Loves Company: Exogenous shocks in retirement expectations and social comparison effects on subjective well-being," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-26.
    9. Redmond, Paul & McGuinness, Seamus & Kelly, Elish, 2017. "Did increasing the state pension age in Ireland affect the overall retirement rate of 65 year olds?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Moritz Hess, 2018. "Retirement Expectations in Germany—Towards Rising Social Inequality?," Societies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-11, July.
    11. Amparo Nagore García & Mariacristina Rossi & Arthur Soest, 2021. "Retirement of the self-employed in the Netherlands," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 385-402, January.
    12. Amparo Nagore Garcia & Mariacristina Rossi & Arthur van Soest, 2018. "Labour Market Decisions of the Self-Employed in the Netherlands at the Statutory Retirement Age," Working papers 057, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    13. Niels Vermeer, 2016. "Age Anchors and the Expected Retirement Age: An Experimental Study," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 255-279, September.
    14. Markus Knell & Esther Segalla & Andrea Weber, 2015. "Expected retirement age and pension benefits in Austria: evidence from survey data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 35-57.
    15. Carmichael, Fiona & Ercolani, Marco G., 2015. "Age-training gaps across the European Union: How and why they vary across member states," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 163-175.
    16. Tomasz Jedynak, 2022. "Does the Formulation of the Decision Problem Affect Retirement?—Framing Effect and Planned Retirement Age," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-30, February.
    17. Monika Riedel & Helmut Hofer, 2013. "Determinants of the Transition from Work into Retirement," NRN working papers 2013-10, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    18. Bo E. Honoré & Thomas Jorgensen & Áureo de Paula, 2019. "Sensitivity of Estimation Precision to Moments with an Application to a Model of Joint Retirement Planning of Couples," CeMMAP working papers CWP36/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Economides, Philip, 2017. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2017," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20173, march.
    20. Künn-Nelen, A.C., 2015. "Further thoughts on replacement demand in Europe. With a focus on ageing of the workforce," ROA Technical Report 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    21. Kalwij, Adriaan & Kanabar, Ricky, 2022. "State Pension eligibility age and retirement behaviour: evidence from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study," ISER Working Paper Series 2022-05, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    22. Monika Riedel & Helmut Hofer & Birgit Wögerbauer, 2015. "Determinants for the transition from work into retirement in Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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