[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/127429.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Luong, Tuan Anh
  • Nguyen, Manh-Hung
  • Khuong Truong, N.T.
  • Le, Kien
Abstract
This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can in-fluence individual migration decisions in Vietnam, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources House-hold Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative associa-tion between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Individual migration probability drops by 7.5 percentage points when the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average doubles. This reduction could potentially be driven by individ-uals who work in the agricultural sector and are less likely to migrate as more rainfall could increase their agricultural incomes. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses sug-gest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam since women cannot cope with climatic shocks through migration. Policy-makers could shift their focus on flood control and water management in affected areas, where people’s liveli-hoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Khuong Truong, N.T. & Le, Kien, 2022. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," TSE Working Papers 22-1373, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:127429
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/wp/2022/wp_tse_1373.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    2. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 560-594.
    3. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    4. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Pytlikova, Mariola, 2016. "Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 135-151.
    5. Aiguo Dai, 2011. "Drought under global warming: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 45-65, January.
    6. Gignoux, Jérémie & Menéndez, Marta, 2016. "Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 26-44.
    7. Ilse Ruyssen & Glenn Rayp, 2014. "Determinants of Intraregional Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa 1980-2000," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 426-443, March.
    8. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    9. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-1149, September.
    10. Carina Goldbach, 2017. "Out-migration from Coastal Areas in Ghana and Indonesia—the Role of Environmental Factors," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 529-559.
    11. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    12. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    13. Clark Gray & Richard Bilsborrow, 2013. "Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1217-1241, August.
    14. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey," Working Papers 200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    15. Koubi, Vally & Spilker, Gabriele & Schaffer, Lena & Bernauer, Thomas, 2016. "Environmental Stressors and Migration: Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 197-210.
    16. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
    17. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    18. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    19. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01630310, HAL.
    20. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    21. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Arouri, Mohamed & Nguyen, Cuong & Youssef, Adel Ben, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Household Welfare, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 59-77.
    23. Jérémie Gignoux & Marta Menéndez, 2016. "Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01245544, HAL.
    24. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2013. "Natural disasters and migration," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 17, pages 309-330, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Sekhri, Sheetal & Storeygard, Adam, 2014. "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 212-223.
    26. Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2021. "Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 118-141.
    27. Zimmermann, Laura, 2020. "Remember when it rained – Schooling responses to shocks in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    28. Salvatore Di Falco & Mahmud Yesuf & Gunnar Kohlin & Claudia Ringler, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 457-478, August.
    29. David S. Blakeslee & Ram Fishman, 2018. "Weather Shocks, Agriculture, and Crime: Evidence from India," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 750-782.
    30. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," Post-Print halshs-01630310, HAL.
    31. Richard Black & Stephen R. G. Bennett & Sandy M. Thomas & John R. Beddington, 2011. "Migration as adaptation," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7370), pages 447-449, October.
    32. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    33. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    34. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    35. Valerie Mueller & Daniel Osgood, 2009. "Long-term Impacts of Droughts on Labour Markets in Developing Countries: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1651-1662.
    36. Cavallo, Eduardo & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Natural Disasters and the Economy — A Survey," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 63-102, May.
    37. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Yunmeng, 2024. "Do natural disaster affect rural labor migration? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 996-1006.
    2. Kaizhi Yu & Yao Shi & Jiahan Feng, 2024. "The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Mukherjee, Manisha & Fransen, Sonja, 2024. "Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Wu, Zhiyang & Zhou, Tao & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Kong, Fanbin, 2023. "A hidden risk in climate change: The effect of daily rainfall shocks on industrial activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 161-180.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    2. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    3. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    4. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    6. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Bekaert, Els & Ruyssen, Ilse & Salomone, Sara, 2021. "Domestic and international migration intentions in response to environmental stress: A global cross-country analysis," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    8. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    9. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Post-Print hal-04465625, HAL.
    10. Florent MCISAAC & Daniel BASTIDAS, 2019. "Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment," Working Paper 911644f9-625d-496f-8ecf-8, Agence française de développement.
    11. Mukherjee, Manisha & Fransen, Sonja, 2024. "Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Feeny, Simon & Posso, Alberto, 2021. "The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    13. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2021. "How climate change leads to emigration: Conditional and long‐run effects," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2323-2349, November.
    14. Helbling, Marc & Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel & Mistry, Malcolm & Schaub, Max, 2021. "Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 169(1-2), pages 1-1.
    15. Mbaye, Linguere Mously & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Natural Disasters and Human Mobility," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 37-56, November.
    16. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    17. Michał Burzyński & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hendrik SCHEEWEL, 2021. "The Geography of Climate Migration," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 345-381, September.
    18. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    19. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    20. Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R. & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2024. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:127429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.